Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia p�ISSN: 2541-0849 e-ISSN: 2548-1398

Vol. 8 No. 4, April 2023

The Effect Of The Ukrainian Russian War On The Value Of Domestic Import Exports Quartal 2 Of 2022

Armin Sarumaha

Universitas Borobudur

Abstrak

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh perang Rusia Ukraina terhadap nilai ekspor impor dalam negeri quarta 2 tahun 2022 dengan melihat nilai ekspor impor di Indonesia sebelum perang (periode September 2021- Januari 2022) dengan nilai ekspor impor di Indonesia sesudah perang (Februari 2022- Juni 2022). Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan melakukan statistika deskriptif dan statistika inferensial. Uji hipotesis dalam penelitian ini mmenggunakan uji beda paired sample test dapat diambil kesimpulan bahwa terjadinya perang Rusia Ukraina memberikan pengaruh pada nilai ekspor impor migas di Indonesia dengan perolehan nilai signifikansi ekspor migas sebelum dan sesudah perang sebesar 0,045 lebih kecil dari 0,05 begitu pulan dengan nilai signifikansi impor migas sebelum dan sesudah perang sebesar 0,028 lebih kecil dari 0,05. Sedangkan pada nilai ekspor impor non migas di Indonesia tidak ada perbedaan atau tidak terpengaruh oleh perang Rusia Ukraina, dengan perolehan nilai signifikansi ekspor non migas sebelum dan sesudah perang sebesar 0,231 lebih besar dari 0,05 dan nilai signifikansi impor non migas sebesar 0,770 lebih besar dari 0,05. Sehingga perang Rusia Ukraina berpengaruh terhadap nilai ekspor impor migas namun tidak berpengaruh terhadap nilai ekspor impor non migas di Indonesia.

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Kata kunci: perang, rusia, ukraina, ekspor, impor

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of the Ukrainian Russian war on the value of domestic import exports quarta 2 of 2022 by looking at the value of import exports in Indonesia before the war (period September 2021- January 2022) with the value of import exports in Indonesia after the war (February 2022-June 2022). This research uses a quantitative approach by conducting descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. The hypothesis test in this study using a paired sample test can be concluded that the occurrence of the Russian Ukraine war had an influence on the value of oil and gas import exports in Indonesia with the acquisition of the significance value of oil and gas exports before and after the war of 0.045 smaller than 0.05 as well as the significance value of oil and gas imports before and after the war of 0.028 smaller than 0.05. Meanwhile, in the value of non-oil and gas import exports in Indonesia, there is no difference or is not affected by the Russian Ukraine war, with the acquisition of the significance value of non-oil and gas exports before and after the war of 0.231 greater than 0.05 and the significance value of non-oil and gas imports of 0.770 greater than 0.05. So that the Russian Ukraine war affected the value of oil and gas import exports but did not affect the value of non-oil and gas import exports in Indonesia.

Keywords: war, russia, ukraine, export, import

Introduction

Over the past few months, the war between Russia and Ukraine took over the focus of the international world. Russia's action against Ukraine since February 24 has been one of the largest attacks since World War II, particularly in Europe. Looking back, the long history of Ukraine and Russia has been going on since the end of the 18th century, even Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union. The invasion by Russia of Ukraine is not new. Because in 2014, Russia had annexed the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine (Rosana & Pradana, 2022).

However, in the past seven years, the situation in Ukraine has reversed where the majority of the political climate and society are more likely to side with the west, turning away from Russia. Ukraine established close ties with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), even planning to merge into it. As a result, it caused relations between Russia and Ukraine to heat up even more. Because, it is known that Russia itself is at odds with NATO. The circumstances led vladimir putin, the president of Russia, to order an invasion of Ukraine (Huka & Kelen, 2022).

The war between Ukraine and Russia is still going on today. Although Russian troops have been pulled out of Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, Russian troops are still in Ukraine, focusing on the Northern part of the region, such as Donbas. The invasion that had lasted for more than a month caused the largest humanitarian crisis in Post-World War II Europe. Thousands of lives were lost, millions of livelihoods were lost due to displacement, loss of homes, and loss of income became a consequence of the war that occurred. As an implication of the Ukraine-Russia war, various challenges are now on the horizon, including humanitarian crises, energy policies, food security and security, intensive competition for materials, equipment, and commodities, control of the supply chain, financial system, and others (Rosana & Pradana, 2022).

Meanwhile, the United States imposed economic sanctions on Russia in the form of Russian financial institutions located in the United States being stopped, all property and investment assets of individuals belonging to people close to the President of Russia were frozen, and Russian debt transactions were restricted (Pakpahan, 2022). Russia also gained petroleum embargo sanctions from other EU countries as well as the United States (Huka & Kelen, 2022)..

This war will have an impact on the world economy, considering that the countries of Russia and Ukraine are one of the world's suppliers of petroleum, natural gas, energy, wheat, food, and fertilizers (Rakhmayanti, 2022). Russia is the world's third largest producer and exporter of petroleum, the world's second-largest natural gas, the world's third-largest coal, the world's largest wheat, the world's second-largest sunflower oil, and the world's largest global fertilizer trade and exporter (Kementerian ESDM, 2022). While Ukraine is the largest exporter of sunflower oil in the world, the fourth largest exporter of corn in the world, as well as the fifth largest in wheat exports (Sridianti, 2022). The long-term disruption of the global economy due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine coupled with the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in inflationary pressures and disruptions in the supply of world materials (Permana, 2022).

Countries in the Southeast Asian region, especially Indonesia, are also affected by the economic aspect, because the Southeast Asian region is an area that depends on Russia for petroleum suppliers. The immediate impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war was the increase in the price of fuel oil in Indonesia, because the supply of petroleum from Russia was disrupted due to the breakdown of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which reduced the supply of petroleum to the European Union Countries in the Southeast Asian region, especially Indonesia, are also affected by the economic aspect, because the Southeast Asian region is an area that depends on Russia for petroleum suppliers. The immediate impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war was the increase in the price of fuel oil in Indonesia, because the supply of petroleum from Russia was disrupted due to the breakdown of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which reduced the supply of petroleum to the European Union. In addition according to� Haya & Tambunan (2022) The Russian and Ukrainian wars are subject to sanctions from other EU countries including restrictions on exporters of energy suppliers which has the impact of world oil prices experiencing continuous increases or fluctuations.

The impact of the Ukrainian Russian war was deeply felt by import exports in Indonesia. This is because both Russia and Ukraine have a strategic role in the largest exporters of several commodities such as Russia exporting coal, crude oil, and wheat, while Ukraine exports seed oil, wheat, and corn. So that the impact of the Russian and Ukrainian wars caused a decline in commodity prices at the global level and even caused a high inflationary pressure for a number of countries. Commodity prices as a result of this war affected various Western countries, Europe, Africa, to the Middle East (Badan Pusat Statistik, 2022).

Indonesia is no exception, the Ukrainian Russian war has had a significant impact as can be seen from some rising goods prices with high commodity prices. In addition, rising commodity prices, especially non-oil and gas, will affect and encourage the value of exports in Indonesia. This can be seen with commodity prices such as CPO and coal which affect Indonesia's exports. Then, the value of imports in Indonesia rose until an indeterminate time during Russia and Ukraine's war (Yusuf, 2022).

One of the success factors in the development of a country's economy is its economic growth. The increase in export demand means that domestic production will increase, increased domestic production can provoke the movement of the domestic economy so that the domestic economy will grow or increase. While an increase in imported goods means increasing the goods produced from abroad that are shipped.� The increase in foreign-produced goods can reduce domestic productivity due to the decrease in demand for similar goods, which has the effect of reducing domestic economic growth (Astuti & Ayuningtyas, 2018).

In international trade, export and import activities are one of the very important factors to increase economic growth. Export and import activities provide an advantage for a country participating in it. Exports are one of the sources of foreign exchange that are urgently needed by countries whose economies are open, because exports can work widely in various countries will allow an increase in the amount of production that encourages economic growth so that it is expected to make a large contribution to the growth and stability of the country's economy. Meanwhile, through imports, the country can meet its domestic needs that cannot be produced domestically so that the costs incurred for a product of goods and services will be cheaper (Hodijah & Angelina, 2021).

Research related to the influence of the Russian Ukrainian war on the value of import exports in Indonesia has not even been done. Therefore researchers want to know the influence of the Ukrainian Russian war on the value of domestic import exports in the 2nd quarter of 2022. To see this influence, the researchers compared the value of import exports before the Ukrainian Russian war in September 2021 with the value of import exports after the Ukrainian Russian war in February to June 2022. This is done so that the government can make an economic development strategy that is in accordance with the conditions of the country and global market conditions.

Research Method

Types of Research

This type of research is an event study (special study) which is used to observe the impact of an event on other variables. Researchers use event study research because the event study research is in accordance with the purpose of this study, namely to find out and explain the influence of the Russian Ukraine war on the value of domestic import exports in quarter 2 of 2022. To see the effect of the war, researchers will review the differences in the value of import exports five before and after the Ukrainian Russian war.

Population and Sample

The population used in this study came from data on Indonesia's import exports before and after the Russian Ukraine war. This study used samples based on purposive sampling that matched the predetermined criteria. The criteria used in the selection of samples are as follows:

a. Monthly data on oil and gas import exports.

b. Monthly data on non-oil and gas import exports.

c. Period September 2021- June 2022.

In accordance with the sample selection criteria above, there are 10 samples of export data for Indonesian oil and gas imports for the period of September 2021 to June 2022. The sample was divided into four sample groups, namely the first sample group of import-export values before the Russian War Ukraine consisted of monthly data for the period from September 2021 to January 2022 (5 months), so that there were 5 data. In the second sample group, the value of import exports after the Russian Ukraine war consisted of monthly data for the period of February 2022 (the beginning of the war) to June 2022 (5 months), so that there were 5 data.

Data Analysis Techniques

The analytical techniques used in this study used a quantitative approach with statistics. The following are the statistics used to analyze the data in this study:

a. Descriptive statistics, at this stage researchers will conduct statistical testing by testing the value of Indonesia's import exports before and after the Russian Ukrainian war. The test uses the calculation of maximal, minimal, mean, and standard deviation values.

b. Inferential statistics, according to Sutopo & Slamet (2017) Inferential statistics are statistics that provide rules or methods that can be used as a tool in order to try to draw general conclusions from a set of data that has been compiled and processed. The research will be carried out by hypothesis testing using a difference test that is adjusted to the sample of this study, namely paired samples. There are two different tests used as hypothesis tests in this study. The parametric test is a paired sample t test and the non-parametric test is a rating test marked Wilcoxon (Wilcoxon signed ranks test). Before conducting the difference test, the normality test is carried out first. This is because the selection of different tests used will be determined based on the results of the normality test. Normally distributed data using parametric tests and non-normally distributed data using non-parametric tests,

1) Normality Test The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to test the normality of the data. The basis for decision-making in this test is determined by looking at its significant value. If the value is sig. > 0.05 then the data is normally distributed, and vice versa if the sig value. < 0.05 then the data is not normally distributed.

2) Paired Sample t Test, paired t test is a parametric test that is in accordance with the purpose of this study, which is to analyze the presence or absence of paired sample relationships. The pairwise t-test formula is as follows:

Source: (Ghozali, 2018)

The decision-making criteria on this test are as follows:

a) Ho is accepted when t count ≤ t table or Sig. > 0.05, where there is no difference between the export value of non-oil and gas imports before and after the war of Russia Ukraine.

b) Ha is accepted if t count > ta table or Sig. ≤ 0.05, where there is a difference between the value of non-oil and gas import exports before and after the war of Russia Ukraine.

3) Wilcoxon Signed ranks Test is a non-parametric statistical test used to analyze paired samples. wilcoxon signed rank test is used to see whether or not there is a difference from the data before and after the existence of a certain treatment and is used if the data is not normally distributed. The decision-making criteria on this test are Wilcoxon's statistical value < a critical value then H0 is rejected and H1 is accepted, and vice versa (Suharyadi & Purwanto, 2016).

Result and Discussion

Data Presentation

Monthly data on the value of Indonesia's import exports before the Russian Ukraine war in September 2021 to January 2022 and after the Russian war Ukraine in February 2022 to June 2022 experienced fluctuating movements every month. The value of import exports is presented in the form of millions of US dollars, according to the following table and figure:

Table 1 The Value of Indonesia's Oil and Gas Exports Before and After the Ukrainian Russian War

Period	Oil and Gas Export Volume (Juta US$))
Period	Sep/Feb	Okt/Mar	Nov/Apr	Des/Mey	Jan/Jun
Before the War	934,8	1064,3	1 339,5	1068,0	901,2
After the War	994,8	1405,1	1433,3	1496,1	1549,3

Source: Badan Pusat Statistika, 2022

Figure 1

Fluctuating Movement of Indonesia's Oil and Gas Export Value for the Period of September 2021-June 2022

In Figure 1. It can be seen that the value of oil and gas exports experienced a decline before the Ukrainian Russian war in December 2021 to February 2022 which was the beginning of the war. Meanwhile, after the war, the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia has increased from March 2022 to June 2022. The increase in the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia after the Russian Ukraine war reached a high value and was far different from the value of oil and gas exports before the war.

Table 2 The Value of Indonesia's Non-Oil and Gas Exports Before and After the Ukrainian Russian War

Period	Non-Oil and Gas Export Volume (Juta US$))
Period	Sep/Feb	Okt/Mar	Nov/Apr	Des/Mei	Jan/Jun
Before the War	19684,0	21026,7	22845,4	22357,7	18272,5
After the War	19478,5	25092,4	25889,0	20013,7	24600,8

Source: Badan Pusat Statistika, 2022

Figure 2

Fluctuating Movement of Indonesia's Non-Oil and Gas Export Value for the Period of September 2021-June 2022

In Figure 2. it can be seen that before the Russian war, Ukraine, the value of non-oil and gas exports increased from October 2021 to November 2021 and then fell in January 2022. After the war, the value of non-oil and gas exports increased in March 2022 to April 2022, then dropped drastically in May 2022. The rise and fall of the value of non-oil and gas exports already occurred even before the Russian Ukraine war occurred.

Table 3 The Value of Indonesia�s Oil and Gas Imports Before and After the Ukrainian Russian War

Periode	Volume Impor Migas (Juta US$))
Periode	Sep/Feb	Okt/Mar	Nov/Apr	Des/Mei	Jan/Jun
Before the War	1866,8	1898,1	3025,0	3377,1	2229,2
After the War	2902,3	3492,2	3813,9	3353,7	3673,0

Source: Badan Pusat Statistika, 2022

Figure 3

Fluctuating Movement of Indonesia's Oil and Gas Import Value for the Period of September 2021-June 2022

In Figure 3. it can be seen that fluctuations in the value of oil and gas imports in Indonesia before the Russian Ukraine war stabilized in September and October 2021, then experienced an increase in November to December 2021 after which it decreased in early 2022. Meanwhile, in March 2022 after the Russian war, Ukraine continued to increase the value of oil and gas imports until April 2022 then experienced an insignificant decline in May after which it rose again in June 2022.

Table 4 The Value of Indonesia�s Non-Oil and Gas Imports Before and After the Ukrainian Russian War

Periode	Volume Impor Migas (Juta US$))
Periode	Sep/Feb	Okt/Mar	Nov/Apr	Des/Mei	Jan/Jun
Sebelum Perang	14367,3	14395,5	16303,2	17974,2	15981,9
Sesudah Perang	13736,2	18470,2	15943,5	15255,6	17330,9

Source: Badan Pusat Statistika, 2022

Figure 4

Fluctuating Movement of Indonesia�s Non-Oil and Gas Import Value for the Period of September 2021-June 2022

In Figure 4. it can be seen that the value of non-oil and gas imports in Indonesia has always experienced ups and downs before the Russian Ukraine war, while after the Russian Ukraine war the value of non-oil and gas imports in Indonesia increased in March 2022 then continued to decline.

Research Result

Normality Test

Table 5 Kolmogorov-Smirnov Results Export Indonesia Before and After The Ukrainian Russian War

Tested Aspects	*Kolmogorov-Smirnov*		Meaning
Tested Aspects	N	Sig.	Meaning
Pre-War Oil and Gas Exports	5	0,285	Normally Distributed
Post-War Oil and Gas Exports	5	0,353	Normally Distributed
Pre-War Non-Oil and Gas Exports	5	0,189	Normally Distributed
Post-War Non-Oil and Gas Exports	5	0,300	Normally Distributed

Table 6 Kolmogorov-Smirnov Results Import Indonesia Before and After The Ukrainian Russian War

Tested Aspects	*Kolmogorov-Smirnov*		Meaning
Tested Aspects	N	Sig.	Meaning
Pre-War Oil and Gas Imports	5	0,242	Normally Distributed
Post-War Oil and Gas Imports	5	0,195	Normally Distributed
Pre-War Non-Oil and Gas Imports	5	0,226	Normally Distributed
Post-War Non-Oil and Gas Imports	5	0,144	Normally Distributed

The results of the normality test with the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, all showed the results of normally distributed data, then the hypothesis test used to analyze Indonesia's import export data before and after the Russian Ukraine war was a Paired Sample t Test.

Paired Sample t Test

Table 7 Paired Samples Test Export Imports Of Oil and Gas-Non-Oil and Gas Indonesia Before and After the Russian Ukraine War

Tested Aspects	*Paired Samples t Test*		Meaning
Tested Aspects	t tabel	Sig.	Meaning
Oil and Gas Exports Before and After the War	0,05	0,045	There are Differences
Non-Oil and Gas Exports Before and After the War	0,05	0,231	No Difference
Oil and Gas Imports Before and After the War	0,05	0,028	There are Differences
Non-Oil and Gas Imports Before and After the War	0,05	0,770	No Difference

Paired Sample t Test results showed that: (1) there was a difference in the value of oil and gas exports before and after the war with a significant value of 0.045 less than t table 0.05, (2) there was no difference in the value of non-oil and gas exports before and after the war Russia Ukraine with a significance value of 0.231 greater than t table 0.05, (3) there was a difference in the value of oil and gas imports before and after the war Russia Ukraine with a significance value of 0.028 smaller than t table 0.05, and (4) there is no difference in the value of non-oil and gas imports before and after the war of Russian Ukraine with a significance value of 0.770 greater than 0.05. So it can be concluded that the occurrence of the Russian Ukraine war had an effect on the value of oil and gas import exports, while the Ukrainian Russian war had no effect on the value of non-oil and gas import exports.

There is an Effect of the Russian Ukraine War on the Value of Oil and Gas Import Exports Quarter 2 of 2022

The test results using the Paired Sample t Test showed that with the onset of the Russian Ukraine war in February 2022, it gave the result that there was a difference or there was an influence on the value of oil and gas import exports in Indonesia. The influence of oil and gas imports is because Indonesia is included in the country that depends on the supply of petroleum and natural gas from Russia, so it will have an impact on Indonesia's imports with Russia and Ukraine (Bakrie, Delanova & Yani., 2022). In addition, according to Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (2022) the increase in the value of oil and gas imports due to the average ICP of Indonesian crude oil in March 2022 increased by US$ 17.78 per barrel from US$ 95.72 per barrel to US$ 113.50 per barrel.

One of the factors of increasing world oil prices is due to sanctions on Russian crude oil exports, potentially disrupting global crude oil supplies by 1.2-4.5 million bopd. The imposition of "Western" countries' sanctions on Russian crude oil exports has the potential to add to the global crude supply deficit at a time when global crude oil demand is starting to increase (Kencana, 2022).

In addition to affecting the value of oil and gas imports in Indonesia, the Ukrainian Russian war also affected the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia with a significance value of 0.045 smaller than 0.05. The increase in exports was also influenced by the increase in commodity prices due to the Russian-Ukrainian war. The Central Statistics Agency reported that several commodities experienced significant price increases, for example the price of Indonesian crude oil on the world market or ICP increased by 18.58 percent on a monthly basis or 78.74 percent on an annual basis (Gunawan, 2022).

No Effect of Ukraine's Russia War on the Value of Non-Oil and Gas Import Exports Quarter 2 of 2022

The test results using the Paired Sample t Test showed that with the onset of the Russian Ukraine war in February 2022, it gave the result that there was no difference or no influence on the value of non-oil and gas import exports in Indonesia. There is no influence on the value of non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia because Indonesia only contributes a small number of exported commodities abroad from several countries that export abroad. As a developing country, Indonesia should make more efforts to diversify export markets as well as China, Africa, or South America so that the value of Indonesia's exports can crawl up to enlarge and expand world trade.. In addition, Indonesia also needs to optimize the use of domestic production in order to meet the needs of demand in the domestic market and begin to reduce dependence on imported goods. This can certainly be overcome if the improvement and empowerment of human resources in Indonesia is carried out properly and directed. Meanwhile, the absence of the influence of the Russian Ukrainian war on the value of non-oil and gas imports in Indonesia due to the dependence of the Indonesian people to use imported goods from abroad has increasingly become a market tradition so that even though there was a war Russia Ukraine did not have a major impact on import activities of non-oil and gas goods (Elvierayani et al., 2021).

Conclusions

Based on the results of research on the influence of the Russian Ukraine war on the value of domestic import exports in quartal 2 of 2022 using a paired sample test, it can be concluded that the occurrence of the Russian Ukraine war has an influence on the value of oil and gas import exports in Indonesia by obtaining the significance value of oil and gas exports before and after the war of 0.045 less than 0.05 as well as the significance value of oil and gas imports before and after the war of 0.028� smaller than 0.05. Meanwhile, in the value of non-oil and gas import exports in Indonesia, there is no difference or is not affected by the Russian Ukraine war, with the acquisition of the significance value of non-oil and gas exports before and after the war of 0.231 greater than 0.05 and the significance value of non-oil and gas imports of 0.770 greater than 0.05. So that the Russian Ukraine war affects the value of oil and gas import exports but does not affect the value of non-oil and gas import exports in Indonesia.

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Armin Sarumaha (2023)

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