Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia�
p�ISSN: 2541-0849 e-ISSN: 2548-1398
Vol. 7, No. 11, November 2022
COMPOSITE AND INVESTMENT INDICES� PERFORMANCE ON
SHORTENED TRADING HOURS IMPLEMENTATION: AN EVENT STUDY
Aulia Dhita Permata
Magister of Management, Economy and Business Faculty, University
of Indonesia
E-mail:
[email protected]
Abstract
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) has reached an all-time high, and both
transaction volume and the number of investors are growing significantly. The
Indonesian government implemented a new policy in response to the stabilization
of the economy, which impacted the capital market. IDX instituted shortened
trading hours on March 30, 2020. During a pandemic, not only Indonesia but also
several other exchanges employ a shortened trading hours policy. Previous
research using the event study method examined market reactions during the
pandemic period and discovered that return and abnormal return on specific
sectors plummeted. This research intended to investigate the impact of
shortened trading hours implementation on 10 investment indices using event
study and a 20-day event window before and after the implementation of
shortened trading hours.
Using a 20-day event window before and after the
policy, this study will examine the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) from each
sample index and its relationship to the shortened trading hours policy. As a
result, since the policy was implemented during the early stages of the
pandemic, there is no correlation between shortened trading hours and CAR.
Furthermore, JII is one of the indices that is growing during the event window.
Adding knowledge of trading hours policy effect to achieve higher market
performance during the global crisis period, so that investors know which indices
to use for investment and consider employing shortened trading hours policy
after pandemic.
Keywords: Trading hours,
cumulative abnormal return, event study, JII.
Introduction
Covid-19 outbreak initially announced in Indonesia on
March 2nd, 2020 and stock market hit negatively for a more few months ever
since (Setyawati et al.,
2021). Almost every country in the world is experiencing a significant 0020 decline
in their economic growth including stock market. Indonesia government took
serious policy to restrict public mobility, large-scale social restriction is
one of implemented policy. It obliges to closing public places, limiting
travel, schools, and offices, then led to slower down Indonesia economy (Khoirunurrofik et al.,
2022).
Not only for public mobility, but several policies
also been implemented in capital market area due to pandemic in order to
stabilized capital market performance (Gao et al., 2022). Self-Regulatory Organization (IDX, KPEI, KSEI)
announced shortened trading hours policy in order to response Indonesia
government policy in public restriction mobility through SRO announcement number
Peng-00099/BEI.POP/03-2020, PENG-0075/DIR/KSEI/0320 and PENG-002/DIR/KSEI/0320
dated March, 26, 2020. There were 5 times trading halt during March 2020, the
first one happened couple weeks after the first case confirmed in Indonesia,
Jakarta Composite Index decline more than 5%. JCI touch the lowest point on
March 24, 2020, and tend to decrease until end of 2020 (Yunus Kasim et al., 2022).
A shortened trading hours policy was implemented in
several countries due to covid pandemic (Sharif et al., 2020). In ASEAN, not only IDX but also SGX, Bursa Malaysia,
SET and PSE shortened its trading hours regarding to its market condition and
to make sure market stability and safety. But many exchanges such as HKEX and
TWSE using another approach to make sure the safe and stability of market. Much
research has been done to analysed how market react
to pandemic, Liu., et.al (2020) analysed main index in many
countries including emerging one, using January 20, 2020, as event day and
another 5 windows event to gain information how market reacted in every single
period. According to this study, the abnormal return rates of the major indices
in France, England, Malaysia, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, and Italy
experienced a negative abnormal return reaction on the day of the event, and
Asian countries were further from expectations than other regions.
Much research has been done to investigate market
reaction, indices and sectoral return due to covid
pandemic. Using abnormal return and event study research, Kasim.,
et.al (2022) examined market reaction to covid
outbreak in Indonesia, it shows that LQ-45 index show a decline since first
confirmation case in Indonesia. From this research, we get information that
LQ-45 index has responded quickly to covid pandemic
and response vary over the time of pandemic. However, JCI gradually increased
from day to day since the beginning of the covid
pandemic in Indonesia, reaching its peak in 2022, and this occurred during
shortened trading hours (Albergamo et al.,
2022).
The extension of trading hours may result in a rise in
daily trading volume; however, this may also increase the volatility of
returns, particularly during the opening and closing sessions at regular hours.
Before enforcing the extension of trading hours, it is necessary to consider
how to encourage investors to trade during the extended session, as the number
of investors participating in the extended session is still relatively small.
This is the conclusion of Miwa., et al (2019) study on the benefits of extended trading hours.
Much research have been conducted to investigate how
the market and stocks reacted to pandemic, and all of those studies came to the
conclusion that the pandemic had a negative influence on the market,
particularly in the early phases of the pandemic. This is due to the impact of
the influx of capital from foreign investors, which is able to lift the
performance of the JCI, particularly for the banking, energy, and technology
sectors. JCI itself is progressively increasing and exhibiting a remarkable
performance throughout the pandemic. The most important contributors to the JCI
are blue chip shares, which are stocks that have a market capitalization value
of more than IDR 10 trillion and are therefore considered to have a relatively
substantial market value. Blue chip stocks are preferred by international
investors, particularly institutional investors, and these blue chip stocks can
be found in areas such as banking, technology, and insurance (Liao, 2016).
The performance of the JCI, which reached its highest
price and increased transaction value, indicated that the Indonesian Capital
Market experienced very excellent growth, a phenomenon worthy of further
examination because it occurred during the implementation of shortened trading
hours policy. With this policy, there will be less trading activity than normal
trading hours because the duration of these hours can cause market volatility.
According to previous research conducted by Miwa (2019) on Japanese stock exchanges, extended trading hours
can have a negative impact, particularly on price efficiency. With extended
trading hours, more and more information will enter the market, posing a risk
and having a negative impact on price volatility Guimar�es
(2016).
This study provides information on how trading hours
affected market performance and will use JCI and 10 investment indices, which
are indices that are used as a form of investment product. As a result, this
study can be utilized for the purpose of adding knowledge regarding which index
is resilient and experiences growth during times of crisis. This study will
enrich Kasim, et. al (2022) study that covers LQ-45 performance as well as Alam., et. al (2021) study that analyses stock performance in particular
sectors, and it will use the same method while focusing in trading hour and
indices performance. Both studies will be enriched by this study.
The objective of this research is to determine if the
implementation of the policy of reducing trading hours has a positive impact on
the performance of the JCI and the Investment Indices, an alternative
investment product to equities and bonds. The purpose of this research is to
assess whether the implementation of this policy can be continued and is
effective enough to maintain capital market performance by analyzing the return
given or the risk and volatility it causes in the stock market and trading
activities. Using the event study methodology, the event period of interest for
this study is from October 7, 2019 to April 28, 2020, with the announcement of
the implementation of the effective trading hours shortening policy on March
30, 2020 serving as the highlighted event. This study will enhance previous
research, particularly in regard to the relationship between trading hours,
index returns, and trading activity.
Figure 1
JCI in 10 years
Literature Review
A. IDX Trading Hours
IDX has modified trading hours twice, in 2013 via the Decree of the
Board of Directors number Kep-00399/BEI/11-2012 dated 14 November 2012, which
went into effect on 2 January 2013 in order to align trading hours with other
regional exchanges, then IDX, KPEI, and KSEI issued a policy to change trading
hours in 2020 via Joint Announcement of SRO numbers Peng-00099/BEI.POP/03-2020,
PENG-00002/KSEI/0320, and PENG-075/KSEI/0320 regarding Modifications to Stock
Exchange Trading Hours and Settlement Time on March 26, 2020. This policy was
implemented on 30 March 2020 as a result of an OJK order regarding changes to
trading hours on the Stock Exchange, Alternative Market Operators, Operational
Hours for Recipients of Securities Transaction Reports, and Adjustments
Settlement Time. In addition, this policy was implemented to maintain the
performance and stability of the Capital Market in light of Covid-19.
Table
1
IDX
Reguler Market Trading Hours Monday - Thursday :
Session |
January
2nd, 2013 |
March
30th, 2020 |
Pre Opening |
08.45.00 � 08.59.59 |
08.45.00 � 08.59.59 |
1st session |
09.00.00 � 12.00.00 |
09.00.00 � 11.30.00 |
2nd session |
13.30.00 � 15.49.59 |
13.30.00 � 14.49.59 |
Pre Closing |
15.50.00 � 16.00.59 |
14.50.00 � 15.00.59 |
Post Closing |
16.01.00 � 16.15.00 |
15.01.00 � 15.15.00 |
Friday :
Session |
January
2nd, 2013 |
March
30th, 2020 |
Pre Opening |
08.45.00 � 08.59.59 |
08.45.00 � 08.59.59 |
1st session |
09.00.00 � 12.00.00 |
09.00.00 � 11.30.00 |
2nd session |
14.00.00 � 15.49.59 |
13.30.00 � 14.49.59 |
Pre Closing |
15.50.00 � 16.00.59 |
14.50.00 � 15.00.59 |
Post Closing |
16.01.00 � 16.15.00 |
15.01.00 � 15.15.00 |
Source : www.idx.co.id, 2022
B. Pandemics and Financial Market
The world is already dealing with a number of crises, and the COVID
pandemic is the most recent issue that will have a significant influence on
both the economy and society. The pandemic has had a significant effect on the
economy of the entire world; it has raised the level of risk in the stock
market; the same thing happened to the stock market with the level of risk following
the severity of the pandemic in each region; as a result, the market has become
extremely volatile and unpredictable (Zhang, et.al.2020). Research conducted in
the stock market through the primary indices of affected countries on every
continent found that the abnormal return rates from the primary indices in
France, England, Malaysia, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, and Italy
experienced a negative abnormal return reaction on the day of the event, and
Asian countries were further from expectations than countries in any other
region (Liu et al., 2020).
Even though the market revealed a 50% positive reaction when the number
of cases increased, the majority of countries in the world with diverse
economic histories face the same problem and react negatively during the early
phases of a pandemic. It demonstrates through surveying 25 of the most infected
nations Phan., et.al (2020). With many policies being implemented by each
government in an effort to decrease the danger of exposure and transmission of
the virus, bringing an impact to particular sectors, Alam.,
et. Al. (2020) shows in a study focusing on an analysis of stock in a
particular sector in Australia. On the day that the announcement of Covid was made, the indices for food, pharmaceuticals, and
healthcare all exhibited impressive positive returns. The findings are
essential for investors, market participants, companies, private and public
policymakers, and governments to develop recovery action plans for vulnerable
sectors and enable investors to regain their confidence in order to make better
investment decisions. Different countries have different reactions from their
financial markets. In Indonesia, for instance, the market showed a positive
reaction almost immediately after the announcement that a COVID outbreak had
been reported in China; this indicates that investors did view the information
as being favorable (Kasim., et.al. 2021).
According to studies conducted on emerging markets outside Asia, the
effect of the pandemic on the stock market is causing an increase in the degree
of volatility of the returns on these equities, (Insaido.,
et.al. 2021) the market experienced turbulence and uncertainty as a direct
result of the lockdown policies that were enacted by countries throughout the
world.
C. Role of Investor in Stock Market
In his study on the Indonesian and Thai Capital Markets regarding
foreign equity trading and emerging market volatility, Wang (2007) stated that
after the market opening, domestic investors are no longer price setters but
rather followers, and that foreign investors have a dominant influence on
domestic market volatility, especially selling transaction. This was found in
Wang's research on the Indonesian and Thai Capital Markets regarding foreign
equity trading and emerging market volatility. Because of the presence of
foreign investors trading in particular companies, local investors will also
trade in those stocks, with lower amounts. It was also discovered by Omay et al. (2018) in their research on the behavior of
foreign investors in the Malaysian Stock Market during the Asian Crisis that
the same thing. The findings of this study are that foreign investors and
ownership can make the market unstable and more volatile, especially during
times of crisis; however, foreign investors also have an effect on economic
growth. This study also came to the conclusion that one of the results is that
foreign investors exhibit herding behavior during the Asian Crisis;
nevertheless, the behavior of foreign investors is determined by how local
counterparts behave.
However, the results of earlier studies are inconsistent with one
another. Research on the effects of financial liberalization on developing
markets, specifically China, and most specifically on international
institutional investors was carried out by Han., et.al. (2015). Based on his
research, concluded that international investors, and especially institutional
investors, help to reduce market volatility and stabilize the market. Nguyen.,
et.al. (2021) conducted research on the impact of foreign investors on stock
market performance in developing markets, specifically Vietnam, during the
COVID-19 period. They found that local investors play an important role in driving
market growth. This finding was based on the findings of the research. Despite
the fact that local investors, and retail investors in particular, are highly
sensitive to market volatility and events that have a significant impact.
D. Trading Hours
The concept of extending trading hours arose in order to break the
concentration of trading volume, which had previously been concentrated on the
closing and opening hours of trading. According to the findings of this study,
extending trading hours can increase the risk of price stability and
efficiency, making the addition of trading hours less useful (Miwa, 2018). Another research conducted by Guimar�es
(2016) led to the conclusion that longer trading hours have
a detrimental impact. According to the findings of this particular research
project, expanding market hours can have the effect of driving down asset
prices and increasing price volatility. Extended trading hours also result in
an increase in the volume of information entering the market; this information
may or may not have a favorable impact on the market depending on its context.
Extended trading hours may result in a rise in the daily trading volume, which
may in turn cause an increase in the degree to which returns are volatile,
particularly during the opening and closing sessions that take place during the
regular trading hours. However, there is a negative impact on the extension of
trading hours because the number of investors participating in the extended
session is still relatively low. Because of this, it is necessary to consider
how to encourage investors to trade during the extended session before
enforcing the extension of trading hours. The findings of this study, which was
conducted by Miwa., et.al (2019) and focuses on the benefits of extending trading
hours, have led to this conclusion.
Research Methodology
A. Data Sources and Samples
In this study, ten indices
used as investment products, as well as the main index in IDX, were used to
investigate the response of a shortened trading hour policy once implemented
due to the pandemic, as well as the correlation between the abnormal return of
indices and the shortened trading hour policy. From October 7th, 2019 to April
28th, 2020, data on stock indices' daily closing prices were collected from the
IDX Data Service. Since shortened trading hours were implemented, March 30th,
2020 has been designated as an event day. According to Alam.,
et.al (2020) research, using 120 trading days prior to an event is appropriate
because the periods are long enough to calculate and describe normal returns.
List of indices that will be used in this study are:
1.
Jakarta
Composite Index (JCI)
It
is a headline index that calculates market value by using a weighted average of
the 825 stocks listed on the IDX at the end of 2022.
2.
Indices used as
investment products
Table 2
List of Investment Indices
No |
Index |
Index Code |
Description |
1)
|
LQ45 |
LQ45 |
This index measures the price performance of 45 equities with high
liquidity, large market capitalization, and solid fundamentals. |
2)
|
IDX30 |
IDX30 |
Measures the price performance of 30 equities with strong corporate
fundamentals, high liquidity, and large market capitalization. |
3)
|
IDX Value30 |
IDXV30 |
Measuring the price performance of 30 stocks with low price valuations
and transaction liquidity and good financial performance |
4)
|
IDX High Dividend 20 |
IDXHIDIV20 |
Measures the performance of 20 stocks that have distributed cash
dividends for the last 3 years and have high dividend yields |
5)
|
Jakarta Islamic Index |
JII |
Measuring the price performance of 30 sharia stocks that have good
financial performance and high transaction liquidity |
6)
|
BISNIS-27 |
BISNIS-27 |
Measuring the performance of 27 stocks selected by the Indonesian
Business Index Committee. This index is a collaboration with the publisher Bisnis Indonesia |
7)
|
MNC36 |
MNC36 |
Measuring the performance of 36 stocks that have positive performance
selected based on market capitalization, transaction liquidity, fundamentals
and financial performance. This index is a collaboration with the MNC Group |
8)
|
SMINFRA18 |
SMINFRA18 |
Measuring the performance of 18 stocks whose constituents come from the
infrastructure, supporting infrastructure and infrastructure financing (banking)
sectors, this index is managed in collaboration with PT Sarana
Multi Infrastruktur (Persero) |
9)
|
SRI-KEHATI |
SRI-KEHATI |
Measuring the performance of 25 shares of Listed Companies that have
good performance in promoting sustainable business and have environmental,
living, social and good governance awareness. This index is in collaboration
with the Indonesian Biodiversity Foundation |
10) |
PEFINDO i-Grade |
I-GRADE |
Measure the performance of 30 investment grade stocks from PEFINDO ((idAAA � idBBB-) with the largest
market capitalization |
Source : IDX Stock Handbook, 2021.
B. Event Study
Event studies are able to be carried out to determine
the significance of an event that takes place by analyzing the price changes
that take place during the event period as well as price changes that take
place before the event period takes place (Bodie et al., 2018). Event study is an empirical method of financial
research that assesses the effect of an event on stock prices. The Event Study
is also a study founded on the efficient market hypothesis, and the effect of
an event can be immediately reflected in asset prices on the Financial Markets,
so it can explain the effect of information on stock return market reactions (Ji et al., 2022). Event study is utilized to measure the impact of an
event on stock returns and the market's reaction to an announcement or event,
thereby allowing for the comparison of identical variables at various times (Mackinlay et al.,
2019).
This study uses an estimation window of 120 days and a
10-day event window. Day 0 refers to the effective date of the shortened
trading hours policy on March 30th, 2020. Figure 2 illustrates the
timeline for event study.
Figure 2
Event Study Timeline
������ ��������� ���-100� (estimation
window)�� ��������������������� -20��������� 0�����
+20�������� (event window)
����
According to McWilliams., et al. (2011), the sample size, non-parametric test to identify
data outliers,
event window duration, and confounding effect are important aspects of the
event study method. There may be confounding effects if multiple items or
events occur during the event window, such as the release of government
policies or market-affecting actions. To reduce the confounding effect on the
specified event window, this study will divide the observation period as
follows:
1.
t-20
until t+20 shortened trading hours policy implementation
2.
t-10
until t+10 shortened trading hours policy implementation
3.
t-5
until t+5 shortened trading hours policy implementation
Calculate daily return from each index through the
estimation window and event window, with formula:
����������� ������������ Pi,t
� Pi,t-1
Ri,t = ___________�
�������������������������������������������������� (1)
����������������������� � Pi,t-1
Where Ri,t
= index daily returns on t day, Pi,t = indeks i closing price on t day
and Pi, t−1 = index i closing price on
t−1 day.
After get return result of each index, then
calculate the expected return using simple regression, conducted by using index
return and market return, with formula:
E(R)i,t =
α + βRm ������������������������������������������������������������������������� �(2)
Where E(R)i,t
= expected return index i on t period; α
= intercept of regression equation; β = slope and Rm
= Return market (return on JCI).
Abnormal return (AR) is also employed in Event
analysis to quantify the effects of an Event, with formula below:
������ ARi,t = Ri,t
- E(R)i,t ���������������������������������������������������������������������� �(3)
Where ARi,t
= abnormal return index i on t period; Ri,t = index daily returns on t day; and E(R)i,t = expected return index i on t period
������ Then we
accumulated all return in a selected period, to capture influence of the event
on index prices, using formula Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) and Average
Cumulative Average Return (ACAR), below:
���� CARi,t:t+k = Σ AR i,t:t+k ��������������������������������������������������������������� ���(4)
���� ACARi,t:t+k = Σ AR i,t:t+k ������������������������������������������������������������ �����(5)
���������������������������� � N
In the event study, parametric and non-parametric
tests must be used to determine whether the ACAR differs significantly from the
expected value. If it is significant, CAR can be assumed to measure the event's
average effect (McWilliams and Siegel, 1997). This study will use paired t-test
for related samples. T- test are also related to the null hypothesis of zero
abnormal return, so the t-null test's hypothesis is :
H0 = states that the policy of shortened
trading hours had no effect on the selected stock indices
H1 = states that the policy of shortened
trading hours had effect on the selected stock indices
A t-test is used to assess the statistical
significance of the CARs and to compute empirical results with different event
windows and estimated windows in order to strengthen the robustness test.
Results and Discussion
Result of descriptive analysis of daily return of JCI
and 10 selected index including mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum
return 20 days before and after shortened trading hours, presented on table 3
below:
Table 3
Descriptive analysis of selected indices (-20,+20)
Pre
event window (-20,0)
Variable |
Mean |
Standard
Deviation |
Minimum |
Maximum |
R-IHSG |
0,001494982 |
0,020944695 |
-0,031796501 |
0,040748544 |
R-LQ45 |
0,000395272 |
0,027775654 |
-0,045728669 |
0,049463699 |
R-IDX30 |
-0,000132543 |
0,027359412 |
-0,047223384 |
0,048418309 |
R-IDXV30 |
0,0036219 |
0,038102709 |
-0,050960071 |
0,08111229 |
R-IDXHIDIV20 |
-0,000671004 |
0,027777031 |
-0,047330925 |
0,053560655 |
R-JII |
0,007119563 |
0,028782156 |
-0,040526086 |
0,058997706 |
R-BISNIS27 |
-0,000911882 |
0,025773266 |
-0,047631543 |
0,045456367 |
R-MNC36 |
0,002135616 |
0,026253264 |
-0,041323845 |
0,049309364 |
R-SMINFRA18 |
0,003220727 |
0,034266123 |
-0,046790068 |
0,076957882 |
R-SRIKEHATI |
-0,001134475 |
0,025686162 |
-0,047471779 |
0,048008068 |
R-IGRADE |
0,001561708 |
0,027266385 |
-0,040379286 |
0,049556119 |
Post event window
(0,+20) |
|
|
|
|
Variable |
Mean |
Standard
Deviation |
Minimum |
Maximum |
R-IHSG |
-0,009019232 |
0,040940176 |
-0,065786736 |
0,101906933 |
R-LQ45 |
-0,010694931 |
0,05655652 |
-0,08261145 |
0,149210785 |
R-IDX30 |
-0,01004763 |
0,057357914 |
-0,082795309 |
0,152850455 |
R-IDXV30 |
-0,016212921 |
0,05592965 |
-0,106729171 |
0,110205575 |
R-IDXHIDIV20 |
-0,010422652 |
0,056394148 |
-0,083622159 |
0,147385677 |
R-JII |
-0,009401685 |
0,052781414 |
-0,078393956 |
0,128102919 |
R-BISNIS27 |
-0,011866607 |
0,054732072 |
-0,084780791 |
0,135743625 |
R-MNC36 |
-0,009617752 |
0,053940467 |
-0,077655609 |
0,146394706 |
R-SMINFRA18 |
-0,013137315 |
0,057362453 |
-0,092793439 |
0,131973047 |
R-SRIKEHATI |
-0,009790136 |
0,05680848 |
-0,078618404 |
0,158686029 |
R-IGRADE |
-0,011008173 |
0,054795718 |
-0,076524665 |
0,148008452 |
Source :
author�s calculation using IDX Data
After the shortened trading hour policy was
implemented, all indices had lower mean returns and an increase in standard
deviation as compared to before the policy was implemented. As a result of the
fact that the minimal returns in the post window are lower than those in the
pre window, it is possible that the reduction in trading hours has a
detrimental effect on the returns of indices.
Based on index return, we can calculate abnormal
return from each index, Figure 3 depicts the movement of the AR of the ten
investment indices over the course of the observation period. The downward Ars graph reflected negative sentiment to index prices, tt can be seen that the JII index is relatively increasing
during the observation period, whereas the IDX Value 30 is relatively
decreasing. While Figure 4 shows CAR and ACAR of investment indices movements
along the estimation window, the cumulative movement of abnormal returns from
the 10 investment indices during the observation period appears very
fluctuating and gives a different response every day, but when the cumulative
value is averaged, the movement of abnormal returns on the investment index is
quite stable.
CAR from t-20 to t-0 has decreased dramatically as a
result of information related to Covid-19, which caused negative sentiment on
the market, resulting in 6 (six) trading halts on the IDX that occurred in
March 2020, namely until March 30, 2020, which is the 6th trading halt and
coincides with the effective date of the implementation of the shortened
trading hour.
Figure
3
Abnormal
Return Investment Index (during event window)
Source: author�s calculation using IDX Data
Figure
4
Cumulative
Abnormal Return and Average Cumulative Abnormal Return of Investment Index
(during event window)
Source:
author�s calculation using IDX Data
The significance of CAR statistically shown in tables
4, to determine how shortened trading hours affected index in three estimation
window (-20,+20), (-10,+10) and (-5,+5). If the significance value is less than
5%, then there is a difference between the variables before and after the
incident; if the significance value is greater than 5%, then there is no
difference between the variables before and after the incident. The findings of
the t-test that was performed reveal that every event window that was selected
as the observation period had a significance level of greater than 5%; hence,
the value of significance could not be established. Because of this, there is
no difference in the Average Cumulative Abnormal Return (ACAR) on the
investment index before and after the announcement of the implementation of the
shortened trading hour policy.
Table
4
Paired
t-test
result
Event
Window |
ACAR |
T-Test
Significance |
Result |
t-20 |
0,37% |
0,0917 |
Not
Significant |
t+20 |
-0,30% |
||
t-10 |
0,31% |
0,3655 |
Not
Significant |
t+10 |
0,36% |
||
t-5 |
0,11% |
0,4428 |
Not
Significant |
t+5 |
-0,23% |
����������������������������������� Source:
author�s calculation using IDX Data
Conclusion
This
study focuses on the implementation of shortened trade hours, which essentially
begin in the middle of a pandemic. The event window used is the same period
when information about Covid-19 began to enter Indonesia, namely in March 2020,
when the implementation of shortened trading hours was an action taken to
reduce the spread of Covid-19 and as a government appeal to limit physical
movement. The implementation of shortened trading hours, effective March 2020,
is consistent with OJK's policy of relaxing capital market activities,
beginning with shortened trading hours and ending with the deadline for
submitting financial reports. A market panic occurred in March 2020, resulting
in a trading halt. When the JCI fell by more than 5%, trading was halted on six
occasions. This was due to the Capital Market's poor performance at the time,
which resulted in a decrease in the value of returns and abnormal returns in
March 2020 (when observation period taken).
The
calculation of the investment index CAR shows that the JII index is increasing,
there are new issuers listed on the IDX in 2020 that are JII constituents, and
the rise of sharia investment and finance causes the JII index to continue to
grow during the observation period. In contrast to JII, SMINFRA18
showed a significant decrease until the end of the observation period.
SMINFRA18 is an index composed of stocks related to infrastructure and
infrastructure support, as well as banking issuers.
This study
is based on the short-term fluctuations of the shortened trading hours policy
implemented in Indonesia, and its findings are crucial for policymakers and
investors in determining which indexes and constituent stocks are more
resilient in crisis periods, particularly given the shortened trading hours.
During shortened trading hours, the Indonesia Capital Market set an
extraordinary record, prompting policymakers to consider reducing trading hours
in response to market-moving information. This study only looked at investment
indices, not sectoral indices with a longer timeframe. Further research is
expected to use sectoral indexes over a longer period of time.
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