Syntax Literate:
Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia p–ISSN: 2541-0849 e-ISSN: 2548-1398
TECNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF
NEW WIND POWER PLANT DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN SULAWESI ELECTRICAL POWER SYSTEM
Santosh, Budi Sudiarto, I
Made Ardita
Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
Email: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
Global warming
due to carbon emissions has resulted in climate change, which negatively
impacts the lives of living things. On the other hand, electricity demand is
increasing every year due to the increasing human population, economic growth,
and equipment electrification. At the moment, most of the electricity
generation in Indonesia uses fossil energy power plants which produce carbon
emissions. PT. PLN (Persero) is a State-Owned Enterprise tasked with managing
the electricity system in Indonesia. PT. PLN (Persero) through the General Plan
for Electricity Supply (RUPTL) for 2021-2030 is targeting the construction of
New and Renewable Energy Power Plants. One of possible plan is the Wind Power
Plant (WPP) construction in the Southern Sulawesi electrical power system. The
use of WPP is expected to reduce carbon emissions. However, the integration of
WPP causes other problems in the existing system such as dropped voltage,
increased equipment loading, increased short circuit current, and decreased stability.
So, it is necessary to conduct a study on the effects of integrating WPP into
the existing system. Using DIgSILENT Power Factory software, Load Flow, Short
Circuit, and Transient Stability simulations were carried out. Then an economic
analysis was carried out including calculating net present value (NPV),
internal rate of return (IRR), profitability index (PI), payback period (PBP),
and levelized cost of energy (LCOE. The use of WPP at a certain capacity will
not disrupt the stability of the system's power because it is still supported
by the fast response generators in the system during variable WPP output. Also
voltage drop, equipment loading, and short circuit current will not exceed the design
value of the system. From a financial aspect, with certain assumptions, WPP
development can be proven to be economically feasible.
Keywords: Carbon emissions; RUPTL;
Southern Sulawesi; WPP, integration effects;
LCOE.
Introduction
Global
warming is an increase in the earth's average temperature that occurs globally
which results from carbon emissions. Global warming has resulted in climate
change in the world which has an impact on the lives of living things slowly.
Some examples of impacts include extreme climate or weather, large floods due
to extreme rainfall, storms, heat waves, damage to ecosystems, extinction of
several types of animals and plants, the emergence of new diseases (by viruses
and bacteria), rising sea levels due to melting polar ice, loss of water
sources and the emergence of new deserts and so on. One of the main causes of carbon
emissions is the massive use of fossil energy in the electrical energy
generation sector. A total of 196 countries, including Indonesia, have ratified
the Paris Agreement to reduce global warming and build resilience to climate
change due to global warming.
Against
the backdrop of rapid cost reduction of wind generation and minimizing of
carbon emissions, the last decade bears witness to the accelerated global
deployment of wind power with the total installed capacity increasing from 81
GW in 2010 to 622 GW in 2019
Indonesia
is one of the countries that has the largest renewable energy potential in the
world, including solar, wind, water, sea, bioenergy (biomass, biogas, biofuel),
and geothermal energy
The
three main factors of power quality are voltage, frequency, and waveform, if one
of them does not meet the requirements it will affect safety and electric power
production
The
integration of Wind Power Plants (WPP) into the existing electricity system
often causes problems. The addition of new power generation including WPP tends
to change the magnitude and direction of power flow so a load flow study is
required. Excessive penetration of WPP plants leads to a noticeable increase in
maximum short circuit current in the network. Simply, as the wind power
increases, a higher short-circuit current will be injected into the system
The
effects of different types of wind turbines on the power grids greatly vary
from one type to another
The
introduction of wind-generated power to the electrical grid contributes to the
reduction of the overall system inertia
To
resolve the challenges mentioned in association with the integration of wind
energy into the grid, accurate modeling, simulation, and evaluation techniques
are needed to investigate electrical power systems and develop adaptation
strategies
From
the technical analysis mentioned before, it is then determined which WPP
capacity is most likely to be integrated without affecting the system badly.
Then an economic analysis will be carried out including calculating net present
value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), profitability index (PI), payback
period (PBP), and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) to determine the economic
feasibility of investment.
Research Methodology
A.
Method and Data Type
This research is
quantitative research using experimental methods, namely methods used to study
the differences and effects that arise if the value of a parameter or quantity
is changed. The research was carried out by simulation using DIgSILENT Power
Factory software version 15.1 for technical
analysis and manual calculation for economic analysis. The data used in
this research is quantitative.
B.
Time and Place
This research was carried out at PT.
Synkrona Engineering Nusantara, Jakarta, Indonesia for three months.
C.
Data Collection
Conducting literature
studies and collecting data on the existing electrical
power system
of Southern Sulawesi (Sulbagsel) at PT. Synkrona Engineering Nusantara is a
renewable energy consultant in Indonesia. Existing electrical data includes
single line diagrams, load data, and technical specifications for Southern
Sulawesi electrical system equipment. The data was also used on
plans for developing the electricity system for Southern Sulawesi in 2025 from
PT.PLN's General Plan for Electricity Supply (RUPTL).
The existing
electricity system that will be studied is the electricity system of Southern
Sulawesi (Sulbagsel) which covers four provinces, namely West Sulawesi, South
Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, and Southeast Sulawesi. Apart from technical data,
economic data was also collected through literature studies for inflation rate,
discount rate, capacity factor, operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, and
initial investment
costs. Also, a literature study was carried out to collect other economic data
such as the selling price of existing WPP and the basic costs
of providing local generation. Technical data used are
as follows.
Table 1 Wind Turbine Data
|
No. |
Description |
Remark |
|
1 |
Type |
Type 4 (Full-Scale Converter) |
|
2 |
Nominal Power |
4,7 MVA (4,2 MW PF 0.9) |
|
3 |
Nominal Voltage |
0,69/33 kV |
|
4 |
R
to X” Ratio |
0,1 |
Note: Wind Turbine Generator (WTG) Type 4’s short circuit current
contribution is a maximum of 110% of the WTG nominal current
Table 2 Power Transformer 33/150kV 250MVA Data
|
No. |
Description |
Remark |
|
1 |
Type |
Two winding step-up transformer |
|
2 |
Nominal Power |
250 MVA |
|
3 |
Nominal Voltage |
33/150 kV |
|
4 |
Frequency |
50 Hz |
|
5 |
Positive Sequence Impedance |
14 % |
|
6 |
Zero Sequence Impedance |
14% |
|
7 |
Load Losses |
400 kW |
|
8 |
No Load Losses |
70 kW |
|
9 |
No Load Current |
0,2 % |
|
10 |
Short Circuit Withstand Current |
40 kA |
|
11 |
Vector Group |
Ynd5 |
|
12 |
No Load Tap Changer |
±10% (step 1,25%) |
Table 3 ACSR Hawk Conductor Data
|
No. |
Description |
Remark |
|
1 |
Type |
ACSR Hawk |
|
2 |
Aluminum Cross Section |
240 mm2 |
|
3 |
DC Resistance pada 20ᴼC |
0,1154 Ohm/km |
|
4 |
Positive & Negative Sequence AC Resistance at
20ᴼC |
0,2 Ohm/km |
|
5 |
Zero Sequence AC Resistance |
0,3 Ohm/km |
|
6 |
Positive & Negative Sequence AC Reactance at
20ᴼC |
0,4063 Ohm/km |
|
7 |
Zero Sequence AC Reactance |
1 Ohm/km |
|
8 |
Nominal Current |
535 A |
|
9 |
Short Circuit Withstand Current |
40 kA |
|
10 |
Frequency |
50 Hz |
Note:
The 150kV line from New WPP to GI Sidrap uses 2xHawk conductors
Table 4 Large Power Plants in the Southern Sulawesi System
in 2025 Based on RUPTL 2021-2030
|
No |
Power Plant |
Capacity (MW) |
|
1 |
PLTU Sulbagsel 2023/2024 |
420 |
|
2 |
PLTU Punagaya |
200 |
|
3 |
PLTU Jeneponto |
450 |
|
4 |
PLTU Sulsel Barru 2-2020 |
100 |
|
5 |
PLTA Malea 2x45 MW |
90 |
|
6 |
PLTU Kendari 3 |
100 |
|
7 |
PLTU BARRU unit 1 & 2 |
90 |
|
8 |
PLTA Bakaru 1 2x63 MW |
126 |
|
9 |
PLTA Bakaru 2 2x70 MW |
140 |
|
10 |
PLTGU Sulbagsel |
450 |
|
11 |
PLTGU Sengkang |
290 |
|
12 |
MPP (PLTG) Sulselbar |
120 |
|
13 |
MPP (PLTG) Kendari |
50 |
|
14 |
PLTU Palu 3 |
100 |
|
15 |
PLTA Poso I |
120 |
|
16 |
PLTA Poso II |
195 |
|
17 |
PLTA Poso II Ext (Poso Peaker) |
200 |
|
18 |
PLTU Mamuju |
50 |
|
19 |
PLTD Tello GE 1 & 2 |
55 |
|
20 |
PLTB Sidrap 1 |
75 |
|
21 |
PLTB Sidrap 2 |
75 |
|
22 |
PLTB Jeneponto |
72 |
Table 5 Peak Load of the South Sulawesi System Based on
RUPTL 2021-2030
|
Year |
Peak Load (MW) |
||||
|
South Sulawesi |
Southeast Sulawesi |
West Sulawesi |
Central Sulawesi |
Total |
|
|
2020 |
1127 |
231 |
71 |
245 |
1674 |
|
2021 |
1293 |
251 |
84 |
269 |
1897 |
|
2022 |
1382 |
347 |
90 |
285 |
2104 |
|
2023 |
1443 |
403 |
97 |
309 |
2252 |
|
2024 |
1505 |
429 |
103 |
326 |
2363 |
|
2025 |
1573 |
444 |
109 |
345 |
2471 |
|
2026 |
1642 |
457 |
116 |
367 |
2582 |
|
2027 |
1708 |
471 |
122 |
387 |
2688 |
|
2028 |
1777 |
486 |
129 |
409 |
2801 |
|
2029 |
1848 |
501 |
135 |
433 |
2917 |
|
2030 |
1932 |
516 |
143 |
458 |
3049 |
Economic data used as follows
1. Based on Indonesian
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree No.169.K.HK.02.MEM.M.2021, the
Basic Cost of Providing (BPP) Generation in the Southern Sulawesi electricity
system is 10,013 USD/kWh.
2. Based on an estimation
from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and
Mineral Resources, the initial investment costs are 1.650.000 USD/MW and the
operation and maintenance cost is 35 USD/kW/year.
3. WPP capacity factor is
assumed as much as 30%. The capacity factor
is a part of the average power output by a generating system to the peak power
or rated power of the generator
4. Based on references
from The European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), the annual operation and
maintenance costs are 3% of the initial investment costs.
5. Inflation values can
refer to data released by Bank Indonesia i.e. around 5% on average. Annual
inflation value for calculating the increase in operation
and maintenance (O&M) costs per year.
6. The discount rate
value can refer to data released by Bank Indonesia, namely the BI Rate or BI
7-Day (Reverse) Repo i.e. around 10% on average.
7. Corporate Income Tax
(CIT) is a tax imposed on the income of a company. In Indonesia, the Ministry
of Finance sets it at 22% (PPh 22).
8. Debt to Equity Ratio
and Repayment Period are assumed 50% and 10 years respectively.
Interest Rate is assumed as much as 6%.
D.
Electrical System Modelling
System modeling uses
DIgSILENT PowerFactory software version 15.1. Modeling was carried out for the
existing electrical system of Southern Sulawesi and the
new WPP
using WTG Type 4. This new WPP is connected to Sidrap 150kV
Substation with some distance long. Data for the existing electrical system of
Southern Sulawesi was obtained from PT. PLN, this data is then processed to
adjust the plan for developing the Southern Sulawesi electricity system in 2025
based on PT. PLN's General Plan for
Electricity Supply (RUPTL) 2021-2030.
An imbalance between
the mechanical power generated by generators and
the electrical
loads leads to a change in the grid frequency. When
the frequency
deviation exceeds a certain limit, controllers
(governors) are
activated to change the power output set point
to the prime movers.
This is called the primary frequency control and is divided
into the phases of inertial response and governor response
Table 6 Governor and AVR Type for Various Power Plants
|
Power Plant |
AVR |
Governor |
|
Steam Power Plant (PLTU) |
IEEET1 |
TGOV1 |
|
Geothermal Power Plant (PLTP) |
REXSYS |
IEEEG1 |
|
Hydro Power Plant (PLTA) |
SCRX |
HYGOV2 |
|
Diesel Power Plant (PLTD) |
SEXS |
DEGOV |
|
Gas Power Plant (PLTG) |
ESST1A |
GAST |
|
Combine Cycle Power Plant (PLTGU) |
IEEET1 |
GAST |
For PLTM (Minihydro Power Plants) and PLTMG (Gas Engine Power
Plants), it is assumed that they do not use AVRs and adjustable governors (free
governors). Apart from that, there are several Steam Power Plants (PLTU) in the
Southern Sulawesi system whose Governor cannot be regulated, such as PLTU
Tawaeli, PLTU Mamuju, PLTU Bau-Bau, PLTU Kendari 3 and PLTU Nii Tanasa.
E.
Electrical System Simulation
System simulation
using DIgSILENT PowerFactory software version 15.1. The simulations carried out
include Load Flow, Short Circuit, and Transient Stability
study.
Several simulations will be carried out for several
scenarios with various new WPP capacities
(cases) i.e 70MW (Case 1), 90MW
(Case 2), 110MW (Case 3), 130MW
(Case 4), 150MW (Case 5), 170MW (Case 7) and 190MW (Case 8). Base
case or Case 0 is a case when there is no new WPP integrated into the system. Then for each scenario, the WPP capacity will
be analyzed. For the Transient
Stability study, only case 1 until 7 was simulated. In the initial condition (precondition)
of the simulation, the new WPP transformer is
positioned in the middle tap or neutral. PLTGU Sulbagsel is set as a swing
generator.
For the Load Flow
study, the voltage and loading that occur will be checked, where the voltage
value must remain within the limits required in the Indonesian
Minister of Energy and
Mineral Resources (ESDM) Regulation No. 20 of 2020 concerning Electrical Power
System Network Regulations (Grid Code). The required voltage variation limits
are +5%, -10% of the nominal voltage (150kV), and the frequency variation
limits are ±0.2 Hz from the nominal frequency (50Hz) and the loading value is
not allowed to exceed the equipment's capabilities.
For the Short Circuit
study, short circuit currents will be checked that
occur where the value is not allowed to exceed the equipment's capabilities. Simulation
performed for 3 phase and 1 phase to ground faults. In the simulation,
fault impedance is ignored.
For the Transient
Stability study, voltage and frequency will be checked, the values of which
must remain within the limits required in the Indonesian
Minister of Energy and
Mineral Resources (ESDM) Regulation No. 20 of 2020 concerning Electrical Power
System Network Regulations (Grid Code). The required voltage variation limits
are +5%, -10% of the nominal voltage (150kV), and the frequency variation
limits are ±0.2 Hz from the nominal frequency (50Hz). For short transient
conditions, a frequency deviation of ±0.5Hz is allowed.
Two case studies will be
examined, namely:
1. The output power of
all WPPs in South Sulawesi, namely WPP Sidrap 1 and 2 (150 MW), WPP Jeneponto
(72 MW) and new WPP (variable MW) decreased by 10%.
2. The output power of
the new WPP fell by 100% (to 0 MW) or
the WPP was tripped.
Before carrying out
this simulation, first, ensure that the AVR and Governor models for each
generator are filled in. The simulation at DIgSILENT PowerFactory was carried
out for 100 seconds to see changes in voltage and frequency due to changes in
WPP power.
F.
Economic Analysis
Economic analysis is
carried out to determine the economic feasibility of a project. The analysis
carried out includes calculating net present value (NPV), internal rate of
return (IRR), profitability index (PI), payback period (PBP), and levelized
cost of energy (LCOE) for the selected design and capacity. The parameters and
units used are as follows: 1) Initial Investment
Cost per MW (USD/MW). 2) Initial Investment
Cost (USD). 3) Operations and
Maintenance (O&M) Costs per year (USD/kW/year).
4) Annual
Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Costs (USD).
5) Inflation/O&M
Growth Rate (%). 6) Annual Fuel Costs (USD).
7) Annual
Electricity Output (kWh). 8) Project Construction
Time (years). 9) Project
Lifespan/Contract Term (years).
10) Discount Rate (%).
11) Interest
Rate (%). 12) Repayment Periode
(years). 13) Debt to Equity
Ratio/DER (%). 14) Corporate Tax (%).
15) Plant
Installed Capacity (MW). 16) Plant Capacity Factor
(%). 17) Electricity Tariff (USD/kWh).
18) Tariff
Escalation (%)
The method used in
calculating LCOE or energy cost is the Life Cycle
Cost (LCC) method, which is a method that
calculates the overall cost of a system starting from
planning, development, operations and maintenance, equipment
replacement, and salvage value during the lifetime of the system
Picture 1 Research
Flowchart
Result and Analysis
From the electrical system simulation, several
trend curves can be created and analyzed as described below
Picture 2 Power
Flow Trend Curve
Power flow tends to increase except for the
Pinrang and Parepare 150kV substations (GI), this is due to a decrease in power
transfer from the Pinrang to the Parepare 150kV Substation and then to the
Sidrap 150kV substation due to the power that should be supplied from those substations
being replaced by power from the new WPP to the Sidrap 150kV substation. For
substations that are far from the new WPP, such as Maros and Balusu 150kV
substation, power flow tends not to change much (the influence of WPP integration
is small).
Picture 3 Voltage
Trend Curve
The voltage tends to decrease due to losses on
lines as a result of the increase in power distribution. However, the voltage
is still within the permitted operating limits, i.e.135kV.
Picture 4 Line
Loading Trend Curve
Line loading tends to increase except for a few lines.
However, the loading is still below 60% of the capacity of each line. It is necessary
to pay attention to the reliability of the Bakaru – Polmas and Makale – Palopo
150kV lines because the line loading in some cases exceeds 50%. There is also
reduced line loading such as Parepare - Pinrang and Parepare – Sidrap 150kV,
this is due to a decrease in power transfer from the Pinrang to the Parepare
150kV substation then to the Sidrap 150kV substation due to the power that
should be supplied through the line being replaced by power from the new WPP to
the Sidrap 150kV substation.
Picture 5 Three
Phase Subtransient Short Circuit Current Trend Curve
Picture 6 Single
Phase Subtransient Short Circuit Current Trend Curve
The short circuit current for both 3 phases and
1 phase does not increase significantly due to the integration of WPP into the
system, even for large capacities. This is because the short circuit current
produced by the new WPP, which uses WTG Type 4, is small because it is limited
by the power electronic components. The short circuit current value that occurs
at each substation is still smaller than the minimum value of short circuit
capacity for substations, namely 31.5 kA.
Picture 7 Nadir
Frequency Trend Curve (New WPP Trip Scenario)
Picture 8 Recovery
Frequency Trend Curve (New WPP Trip Scenario)
In all cases, the nadir frequency is still above
the required limit during transient conditions, namely 49.5 Hz. Nadir frequency
is the minimum frequency that occurs during transient conditions. This is
because the total inertia of the system is still large enough to withstand a
decrease in frequency even though the WPPs in the system have no inertia. So
the main focus of the analysis is the frequency of recovery.
For case 6 the system recovery frequency is just
above the permitted operating frequency limit, namely 49.8 Hz. For case 7 the
system recovery frequency is below the permitted operating frequency limit. So
it is necessary to consider using a connected WPP capacity that is smaller than
170MW, namely cases 1 (70 MW) to 5 (150 MW). If WPP more than 150MW wants to be integrated, then
fast response spinning reserve generators or batteries need to be provided. At
certain WPP capacities, the system recovery frequency does not deviate much
because it is still supported by the presence of Hydro, Diesel, Gas, and Combine
Cycle Power Plant in the system where these generators will respond to power deficit
by increasing the power of each of these generators.
There are no significant changes in voltage due
to changes in WPP power for various capacities (cases). So the trend curve does
not need to be created. The biggest voltage change occurred when the new WPP
tripped in case 7, the initial voltage of 149.61kV dropped to 149.15kV during
recovery. This is because the reactive power supplied by other generators in
the system is still sufficient to maintain voltage.
For economic analysis, data input as below is
used. The simulated WPP capacity is 150 MW because it is technically more
feasible as explained in the previous:
Table 7 Economic Data Input
|
Data Input |
Value |
|
Initial Investment Cost (USD/MW)
|
1.650.000 |
|
Initial Investment Cost (USD) |
247.500.000 |
|
Operations and Maintenance Costs
(USD/kW/year) |
35 |
|
Annual Operations and
Maintenance (O&M) Costs (USD) |
5.250.000 |
|
Inflation/O&M Growth Rate
(%) |
5,0% |
|
Annual Fuel Costs (USD) |
- |
|
Annual Electricity Output (kWh) |
394.200.000 |
|
Project Construction Time
(years) |
1 |
|
Project Lifespan/Contract
Term (years) |
25 |
|
Discount Rate (%) |
10,0% |
|
Interest Rate (%) |
6,0% |
|
Repayment Periode (years) |
10 |
|
Debt to Equity Ratio/DER (%) |
50,0% |
|
Corporate Tax (%) |
22,0% |
|
Plant Installed Capacity (MW) |
150 |
|
Plant Capacity Factor (%) |
30,0% |
|
Electricity Tariff (USD/kWh) |
9 |
|
Tariff Escalation (%) |
3,0% |
From the simulation, the following economic indicators
results are obtained:
Table 8 Economic Indicator Result
|
Indicator |
Value |
|
IRR (%) |
11,94 |
|
PBP (year) |
9,81 |
|
PI |
1,49 |
|
NPV (USD) |
60.146.654 |
|
NPV Cost (USD) |
319.682.564 |
|
NPV Energy (kWh) |
3.578.169.175,19 |
|
LCOE [cUSD/kWh] |
8,93 |
From the data input
and the assumptions used, it can be seen that
1. The
PI value is greater than 1 and the NPV is positive, meaning the project is
financially profitable.
2. The
payback period is still less than 10 years, less than the loan term and the IRR
is bigger than
10%, bigger than the BI Rate.
3.
The LCOE value obtained (8,93 cUSD/kWh) is
still smaller than the average Basic Cost of Providing (BPP) Generation in the Southern Sulawesi
electrical system (10,013
cUSD/kWh).
This means the
project is still economically feasible.
Conclusion
From the research conducted, several conclusions
can be drawn as follows: 1) The power flow experiences changes (increases or decreases)
due to the integration of the WPP into the existing system. 2) The voltage
tends to decrease due to line losses due to the increase in power distribution,
but the voltage is still within the permitted operating limits, namely 135kV.
3) The line loading changes (increases or decreases) depending on changes in
power flow that occur. 4) Short circuit current for both 3 phases and 1 phase
does not increase significantly due to the integration of WPP into the system,
even for large capacities. This is because the short circuit current produced
by the WPP which uses WTG Type 4 is small. After all, it is limited by the
power electronic components in the wind turbine power converter to a value
around the nominal current of the wind turbine.
5) The capacity limit for connected WPP must be
smaller than 170MW, in this case, cases 1 (70 MW) to 5 (150 MW). If the
capacity of the connected WPP is more than that, then when the WPP trips, the
system frequency will not recover above the operating limit required in the
network regulations, namely 49.8 Hz. This is because the Hydro, Gas, Combine
Cycle, and Diesel which are fast response generators in the system are unable
to compensate for the frequency decrease that occurs.
6) There are no significant changes in voltage
due to changes in WPP power for various capacities (cases). 7) The LCOE value
obtained (8,93 cUSD/kWh) is still smaller than the average Basic
Cost of Providing (BPP) Generation in the Southern Sulawesi electrical system (10,013 cUSD/kWh). 8) From
the simulation carried out, the use of WPP with a capacity of 150 MW is technically
and economically feasible.
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Copyright holder: Santosh, Budi
Sudiarto, I Made Ardita (2023) |
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First publication right: Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia |
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