Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia p–ISSN:
2541-0849 e-ISSN: 2548-1398
Vol. 8, No. 12, December 2023
MARKET REACTION TOWARDS DIVIDEN TAX RATE CHANGES OF
THE OMNIBUS LAW ON JOB CREATION IN INDONESIA
Dedi Purba
Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
Email: [email protected]
Abstract
This paper is to investigate the changes in the
dividend tax rate effect on the stock price of the companies listed on the
Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and to demonstrate the existence of abnormal
returns by examining stock trading situations before and after the ex-dividend
date. Standard event study methodology, using the market model, is employed to
determine the abnormal returns surrounding the ex-dividend date. The findings
are useful to researchers, practitioners, and investors interested in companies
listed on the Indonesian stock market for their proper strategic
decision-making. In particular, the results can be used to encourage
transparency and good governance practices in the Indonesian stock market. This
study is the first to use dividend tax rate data after the Introduction of the
Omnibus Law on Job Creation and the Law on Harmonization of Tax Regulations. By
using the event study method, the study reveals that there is no significant
difference in abnormal returns before and following the ex-dividend date, both
preceding and after the reduction in the new tax rate. Thus, the dividend tax
rate reduction does not affect the market reaction in the event window.
Keywords: Dividends, Ex-Dividend Date, Dividend Tax Rate,
Market Reaction, Event Study.
Introduction
Management as an agent of
the company has the task of increasing the wealth of shareholders by maximizing
the return on investments made to the company, this is in line with the
financial theory (Jensen, 2001). In carrying out the distribution of surplus
wealth through dividends, the company has a policy in determining when dividend
distribution should be done, how the proper scheme in its reimbursement, and
whether this will last over time (Lease Ronald C. et al., 1999)? Therefore, the
company should pay close attention to the measures taken so that the
management's goal of maximizing the wealth of its investors is well achieved.
Thus it can be concluded that the significant factors that determine the
dividend policy are an important contribution to the process of making dividend
decisions (Damodaran, 1996).
According to (Gitman & Zutter, 2003), the
capital market is the place where suppliers and demanders conduct long-term
instrument transactions. Weston and Brigham (1990) propose that stock price
fluctuations can be attributed to many sources such as earnings per share
(EPS), interest rate, cash dividend, company profit, and risk and return. Stock
return refers to the financial gain experienced by investors as a result of
their investment in shares. According to Ang (2010), investors are unlikely to
allocate their assets towards investments that do not yield any profits. The
actual return refers to the rate of return derived from historical data
acquired by shareholders in previous periods. Consequently, it holds
significant importance as it serves as a key metric for evaluating the
performance of a company.
Fama (1970) mentions that a market can be said
to be an efficient market when the market fully provides comprehensive
information through the stock price as a reflection of accurate signals so that
investors can make decisions in the purchase of stocks in the market. Dividends
are profits earned by shareholders from capital deposits made either in cash or
in shares as a distribution of the company's profits (Ross et al., 2022).
Dividends, which serve as a mechanism for companies to allocate earnings to
their shareholders, can be classified into four distinct forms: regular cash
dividends, extra dividends, special dividends, and liquidating dividends. The
company that's going to distribute cash dividends has to do some defining and
launching dividend distribution. The dividend policy does not affect the price
of shares or the cost of capital issued by the company (Miller &
Modigliani, 1961).
The dividend signaling theory states that an
entity can use the dividend as a signal to shareholders to inform the company's
future value and can even change investors' expectations of the company
(Bhattacharya, 1979). An announcement of a surprise dividend will influence the
price of the stock which will adjust to the announcement (Miller & Rock,
1985). The market reaction to dividends can be seen in abnormal returns that
show that dividends become useful information compared to information in
financial statements (Aharony & Swary, 1980). Comparison of the amount of
dividends paid between the current and previous periods will have a direct
effect on the price of the stock. A decrease in dividend payments will result
in a fall in the share price and an increase in the dividend paid will have an
impact on the stock price which is also rising (Aharony & Swary, 1980).
According to Ross et al. (2022), the
chronological order of announcement procedures leading to the disbursement of
dividends includes the declaration date, date of record, ex-dividend date, and
date of payment. (Litzenberger & Ramaswamy, 1979) stated that investors
prefer capital gains to dividends because they can defer tax payments until the
shares they own are sold, while dividends should be made as soon as possible.
A lower dividend tax than a capital gain tax is
preferred by investors, and will increase demand for dividends, and vice versa
(Al-Malkawi et al., 2010). The Clientele Effect states that different groups
want a different dividend payment policy anyway. Companies tend to attract
investors with the company's dividend policy. Investors will be interested in
companies that apply dividend policies that fit their circumstances (Al-Malkawi
et al., 2010). Increased investments from previous years that a company wants
to make will necessarily require more money to finance future investments so
that the company pays less dividends and makes more investments to maximize
expected profits (Myers & Majluf, 1984).
The Income Tax Law Number 7 of 1983 in Indonesia
governs the taxation of income, including the dividend tax. This tax applies to
both domestic and foreign taxpayers, with rates of 15% and 20% respectively.
According to the First Amendment, Corporate Taxpayers and Mutual Funds are
granted an exemption from dividend tax. The Second Amendment does not alter the
dividend tax but instead imposes supplementary obligations on Corporate
Taxpayers.
To qualify for an exemption from income tax,
Corporate Taxpayers must own a capital amount above 25%. In the year 2008, the
government implemented Law Number 36 Year 2008, which established a definitive
tax rate of 10% applicable to individual taxpayers. Tax benefits for local
taxpayers have been provided by the government, as stipulated in Job Creation
Law Number 11 of 2020. These policies are designed to enhance investment in the
nation, with a focus on attracting both domestic and international investors.
In the United States, the effect of dividend tax
cuts in 2003 had no significant impact on the company's dividend payment policy
(Brav et al., 2008). The 2012 dividend tax reform in China, forced companies to
increase their dividend payments as a result of the demand from controlling
shareholders (Yu et al., 2021). Dividend tax cuts have a positive impact on
corporate policy, not just in Canada (Deslandes et al., 2015), but also in
South Korea (Lee & Park, 2023). The decrease in dividend tax rates in
Indonesia in 2009 prompted companies to increase dividend payments to shareholders
(Wayan & Eka, 2019).
If the dividend payout is large, then the price
of the stock will fall because the tax on dividends is higher than the tax
imposed on capital gain (Park & Evans, 2011). According to Miller and
Modigliani (1961), the stock price in the perfect capital market will not be
affected by the company's dividend payment policy. This is because shareholders
believe that cash dividends and profit are equally important (Miller &
Rock, 1985). The stock price will be subject to movement before and after the
announcement of the dividend announcement until the payment of dividend payout
issued by the company. Investors will react to the dividend announcement,
whether it's positive or negative (Ross et al., 2022).
Blandon, Blasco, and Bosch (2011) found the same
situation where stock prices will fall on the ex-dividend date. Other research
shows that the events that occur around the ex-dividend date are due to the
difference in tax rates between dividends and capital gains on marginal long-term
investors (Elton and Gruber, 1980). With a decrease in the dividend tax rate,
investors will benefit more from their stock dividends. A change in the
dividend tax rate can also affect a company's dividend policy.
Previously, companies may not pay dividends or
pay them at a small percentage. However, after the new rules are implemented,
companies may decide to pay dividends or increase the percentage of dividends
paid out. By earning dividends, an investor will get a more certain return in
the future than capital gains due to changes in stock prices (Nam, Wang and
Zhang, 2010). From this theory, it can be hypothesized that:
H1: There is a difference in market reaction due
to the new dividend tax rate before and after the ex-dividend date.
This paper contributes to research to see to
what extent the market reaction to reduced dividend tax rates before and after
the ex-dividend date by comparing conditions before and after the
implementation of the Omnibus Law on Job Creation and the Law on Harmonization
of Tax Regulations.
Research
Methods
168 companies and 336 samples are
represented in the dataset, sourced from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
The entities are corporations that distribute dividends throughout the
specified period. The research period is 2019 and 2022, encompassing the year
preceding and the year following the implementation of the Omnibus Law on Job
Creation and the Law on Harmonization of Tax Regulations.
Table 1. Sample Selection
Criteria
Number |
Sample Selection Criteria |
Number of Companies |
1 |
Companies
listed on the IDX that pay dividends in 2019 and/or 2022 |
283 |
2 |
Companies
listed on the IDX that pay dividends in 2019 and 2022 |
200 |
3 |
Companies that have dividend details (ex-dividend date) in 2019 and
2022 on Eicon Thomson Routers |
177 |
4 |
Companies that have active stock price movements every day |
173 |
5 |
Companies
that do not take any other corporate actions |
168 |
6 |
Amount
of Samples |
336 |
Source: The Author
This research uses a quantitative
method that uses numerical data to test the hypotheses that are formulated.
This method is intended to see phenomena that occur based on samples that have
been generalized to a wider population (Creswell, 2009). Investors will receive
dividend profits from the company if they purchase shares before the
ex-dividend date. Cum dividend date is the last day that investors receive
dividends (Ross et al., 2022). The increase in dividends paid compared to the
previous year is a positive signal to investors about the company's performance
in maximizing company profits in the years to come (Brigham & Houston,
2009).
The method used in this study is the
Event Study. This method is used to look at the market reaction to the
announcement of dividend payments made by the company by measuring abnormal
share returns. This method is often used in financial research including
mergers and acquisitions. Other important events such as new equity, debt
financing, and trade deficits also implemented event studies (Mackinlay, 1997).
According to Fama (1991), the market would react to the company's announcement
of dividend payments. This announcement will affect the stock price on the
market as information reaches investors. According to research conducted by
(Dharmarathne & Dharmarthna, 2020), the estimated period is set to be 120
days before the event window, i.e. t-130 to t-10.
Figure 1. Observation Period
Source: The Author
To assess the impact of the decrease in dividend
tax rates resulting from the implementation of recent governmental policies,
the initial course of action entails computing the factual rate of return. The
determination of the real return is achieved by computing the daily stock
returns inside the designated event window utilizing the prescribed formula.
(1)
Where Ri,t is the actual return of firm I on day t; Pt is adjusting the close stock price of firm I on day t; and is adjusting the close stock price of firm I on day t-1
The calculation of market return involves the computation of Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). The calculation of market return occurs within the estimation period, specifically 120 days before the event window (t-10).
(2)
Where is the market return on day t; is IHSG on day t; and is IHSG on day t-1. The market model can be utilized to estimate (alpha) and (beta). The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model is used to conduct a regression between the market return and stock returns for this method.
(3)
Where is excess return; is intercepted; is beta; is excess return market portfolio, and is firm-specific. Next, the expected return E ( will be calculated using the market model's derived (alpha) dan (beta) values from Equation 3.
(4)
The abnormal return ( is used to calculate the excess return compared to the expected return, taking into consideration the systemic risk associated with the asset. The measurement of abnormal return for each issuer involves the subtraction of the actual return from the expected return.
(5)
The Average Abnormal Return (AAR) is determined by aggregating the abnormal return of each firm within a specific t-day period and then dividing it by the total number of sample companies present on that particular t-day
(6)
where is the average abnormal return on day t; is abnormal return firm I on day t; and n is several samples.
The Cumulative Average Abnormal Return (CAAR) is computed by aggregating the Abnormal Average Return (AAR) of day t (AARt) with the preceding day. The calculation of the cumulative abnormal return (CAAR) is determined by the event window period, which spans from h-10 to h+10 and is calculated using the formula.
(7)
In this study, we used parametric t-statistics for the hypothesis test. Two statistical approaches will be applied to conduct the difference test. These methods include the Two-Sample Assuming Equal and Unequal Variances, as well as the Two Sample Paired t-test.
Results and Discussion
To
evaluate the effect of tax rate policy changes on market reaction, researchers
conducted a daily t-test analysis within the event window. This event window
covers 10 days before the ex-dividend date and 10 days after the ex-dividend
date. The purpose of the test is to analyze and compare daily abnormal returns
before and after the change in dividend tax rate policy due to the
implementation of the Omnibus Law on Job Creation and the Law on Harmonization
of Tax Regulations.
Table 2. The Analysis AAR at the event window period
Days |
AAR |
t (AAR) |
p-value |
|
Before the new dividend tax rate |
After the new dividend tax rate |
|||
t-10 |
-0.003697 |
0.003395 |
-1.8756 |
0.0616* |
t-9 |
0.000006 |
0.004276 |
-1.1231 |
0.2622 |
t-8 |
0.002585 |
0.003199 |
-0.1565 |
0.8757 |
t-7 |
-0.000120 |
0.007712 |
-1.9211 |
0.0556* |
t-6 |
0.002790 |
-0.001631 |
1.1106 |
0.2675 |
t-5 |
-0.001830 |
-0.003178 |
0.3604 |
0.7188 |
t-4 |
0.003436 |
-0.000553 |
1.0953 |
0.2742 |
t-3 |
0.000479 |
0.002315 |
-0.491 |
0.6237 |
t-2 |
-0.000216 |
0.002962 |
-0.7911 |
0.4295 |
t-1 |
-0.000776 |
-0.001573 |
0.2402 |
0.8103 |
|
0.007620 |
0.007447 |
0.0511 |
0.9593 |
t+1 |
-0.006732 |
-0.001495 |
-1.1531 |
0.2497 |
t+2 |
-0.006803 |
-0.002405 |
-1.2239 |
0.2219 |
t+3 |
-0.002167 |
0.000507 |
-0.6849 |
0.4939 |
t+4 |
0.001693 |
0.001911 |
-0.0604 |
0.9519 |
t+5 |
0.004034 |
0.002928 |
0.2906 |
0.7715 |
t+6 |
-0.001380 |
0.002104 |
-0.9892 |
0.3233 |
t+7 |
0.000587 |
0.001297 |
-0.1874 |
0.8515 |
t+8 |
-0.000633 |
0.000530 |
-0.3241 |
0.746 |
t+9 |
0.000051 |
0.000332 |
-0.0786 |
0.9374 |
t+10 |
-0.002262 |
-0.001753 |
-0.1451 |
0.8847 |
Note:
*significance level a = 10%, **significance level a = 5%
Source: The Author.
Table 3 The Analysis CAAR at the event window period
Days |
CAAR |
t (CAAR) |
p-value |
|
Before the new dividend tax rate |
Setelah tarif pajak dividen yang
baru |
|||
t-10 |
-0.003697 |
0.003395 |
-1.8756 |
0.0616* |
t-9 |
-0.003691 |
0.007671 |
-1.7829 |
0.0755* |
t-8 |
-0.001106 |
0.010869 |
-1.3302 |
0.1844 |
t-7 |
-0.001226 |
0.018581 |
-1.9189 |
0.0558* |
t-6 |
0.001564 |
0.016950 |
-1.3607 |
0.1745 |
t-5 |
-0.000266 |
0.013772 |
-1.1325 |
0.2582 |
t-4 |
0.003170 |
0.013220 |
-0.7271 |
0.4677 |
t-3 |
0.003649 |
0.015534 |
-0.7768 |
0.4378 |
t-2 |
0.003433 |
0.018496 |
-0.8656 |
0.3873 |
t-1 |
0.002657 |
0.016923 |
-0.7830 |
0.4340 |
|
0.010277 |
0.024370 |
-0.7409 |
0.4593 |
t+1 |
0.003545 |
0.022876 |
-0.9328 |
0.3516 |
t+2 |
-0.003258 |
0.020470 |
-1.0737 |
0.2837 |
t+3 |
-0.005425 |
0.020977 |
-1.1120 |
0.2670 |
t+4 |
-0.003732 |
0.022888 |
-1.0514 |
0.2938 |
t+5 |
0.000302 |
0.025816 |
-0.9361 |
0.3499 |
t+6 |
-0.001078 |
0.027920 |
-1.0136 |
0.3115 |
t+7 |
-0.000491 |
0.029217 |
-0.9848 |
0.3255 |
t+8 |
-0.001124 |
0.029747 |
-0.9879 |
0.3239 |
t+9 |
-0.001072 |
0.030079 |
-0.9572 |
0.3392 |
t+10 |
-0.003335 |
0.028326 |
-0.9268 |
0.3547 |
Note: *significance level
= 10%, **significance level = 5%
Source:
The
Author.
Tables 3
and 4, show a significant difference in the average abnormal return (AAR) on
t-10 and t-7, as well as the cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) on t-10,
t-9, and t-7 before the ex-dividend date, with a significant level of α = 10%.
The impact of the new dividend tax rate on stock prices on t-10 and t-7 is
uncertain, considering there are no substantial variations in stock prices on
other days.
The rise in
stock price may be attributed to shifts in investor sentiment towards the
company, improvements in corporate fundamentals such as strong financial
performance, or attractive market conditions. Nevertheless, when examined
collectively within the specified time frame, there was no significant
difference in the AAR and CAAR. This suggests that the tax change's
announcement did not result in any information leaks, which means the market's
response was not significantly impacted.
No one
consistently earns a superior return in an efficient market due to the direct
incorporation of publicly available information that affects the stock's value
into the stock price. Hence, the average
abnormal return (AAR) does not demonstrate a consistent positive or negative
trend over a long time, both before and after the ex-dividend date. The AAR
graph presented in Figure 2 illustrates a varied reaction of the overall
average normal return before the ex-dividend date (t_0).
Before and
after the implementation of the new dividend tax rate, the return fluctuates
both positively and negatively. The new
dividend tax rate has a minor impact on market reaction a day before the
ex-dividend date (t-1), known as cum dividend.
At cum dividend, the market retains the shares it owns with the
expectation of generating profits through dividends received on the next
day. Regardless of whether there is a
tax on dividends or not, investors or shareholders are motivated to hold onto
their stocks to maximize the benefits derived from their dividends.
Figure 2 The figure shows the plot for AARs before and after the new dividend tax rate policy.
The market reacts negatively to the ex-dividend date (t+1) both before and after the implementation of the new dividend tax rate. This can be seen by a decrease in the average return on investment (AAR), which indicates a significant sell-off appears immediately after stockholders receive their dividend rights. On the day following the ex-dividend date, after the dividend tax rate has been implemented, the fall in stock price is equivalent to the dividend received on the ex-dividend day.
This is in line with the statement made by Ross, Westerfield, and Jaffe (2012) that the fall in stock price is equivalent to the dividends earned on the ex-dividend date in nations that do not impose a dividend tax. However, the amount of reductions in stock prices might be affected by the dividend tax rate that is implemented. This phenomenon is shown in Figure 4.1, where the fall in the stock price at time t+1 before the implementation of the new tax rate is more significant compared to the fall in stock price after the new tax rate.
Researchers tried to compare the cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) in the period t-10 to t-1 (cum dividend date) and (ex-dividend date) to t+10 to find out whether the new tax rate policy made a significant difference to the market reaction. Table 3 shows the calculation carried out to test the cumulative average abnormal return at t-10 to t-1 before and after the implementation of the new dividend tax rate. The t-test result shows -0.8480 with a significance level of 0.3970. Therefore, we do not reject the null hypothesis which states that there is no market reaction related to the new tax rate before the ex-dividend date.
Table
4 The analysis CAAR s.d t+10
t-Test |
p-value |
Remarks |
-0.8480 |
0.3970 |
Insignificant |
Based on the test results presented in Table 4, it is evident that the implementation of a new dividend tax rate does not significantly affect the market reaction regarding the retention of owned shares before the ex-dividend date. This is because investors continue to anticipate benefits from the dividends received, despite the reduction in the dividend tax rate.
Table 5 shows the calculation of cumulative average abnormal return at t-0 to t+10 before and after the implementation of the new dividend tax rate policy. The t-test result shows – 0.8640 with a significance level of 0.3882. Therefore, we do not reject the null hypothesis which states that there is no market reaction related to the new tax rate after the ex-dividend date.
Table
5 The analysis CAAR s.d t+10
t-Test |
p-value |
Remarks |
-0.8640 |
0.3882 |
Insignificant |
Table 6 shows the results of the CAAR analysis during the event window starting from t-10 to t+10 in 2019 the year before the new tax rate takes effect and 2022 which is the year when the reduced tax rate takes effect. The t-test result shows -1.1172 with a significance level of 0.2655. Thus, we do not reject the null hypothesis which states that there is no market reaction both before and after the ex-dividend date because of the implementation of the new dividend tax rate.
Tabel 6 The analysis CAAR t-10 s.d
t+10
t-Test |
p-value |
Remarks |
-1.1172 |
0.2655 |
Insignificant |
Figure 3 illustrates a clear positive trend in the CAAR
before and after the implementation of the new dividend tax rate, as observed
before the ex-dividend date. This demonstrates that investors consider the
ex-dividend date information as positive news, leading to a market response
where they buy shares before the ex-dividend date to get dividends.
Nevertheless, the decrease in the new tax rate does not generate a significant
difference in market reaction before the ex-dividend date.
Figure
3. The
figure shows the plot for CAARs before and after the new dividend tax rate
policy.
The CAAR has a different pattern after
the beginning of the post-ex-dividend date period. The CAAR had a declining
pattern before the application of the dividend tax rate, primarily driven by
investors' overreaction, leading them to sell their shares when the eligibility
to receive dividends expired. Unlike CAAR after the implementation of the
dividend tax rate, the trend exhibited an upward trend until t+10, although experiencing
a decline until t+2 after the ex-dividend date.
This decrease usually happens as a
result of market overreaction, leading to the sale of shares after the
expiration of dividend rights. However, the market then undergoes a positive
correction by purchasing shares at a lower price. Nevertheless, the decrease in the tax rate
does not have a significant effect on the market's reaction after the
ex-dividend date.
Conclusion
Dividends serve as a signal to investors
regarding the future value of the firm and have the potential to influence the
investor's perception of the company (Bhattacharya, 1979). The declaration of dividend reductions
indicates a decline in a company's financial performance, whereas dividend
increases indicate an improvement in the company's overall performance. Dividends play a crucial role in analyzing
the market reaction by calculating the abnormal return obtained (Aharony and
Swary, 1980). Taxation of dividends affects the company's dividend policy. A
higher dividend tax rate can reduce the amount of dividends distributed to
shareholders, whereas a lower tax rate can have the opposite effect.
This study examined the abnormal returns earned before and after the ex-dividend date as a result of the implementation of the Omnibus Law on Job Creation and the Law on Harmonization of Tax Regulations. Testing is conducted through the usage of the event research methodology, which analyzes financial market data to determine the magnitude of the influence of an event on the value of a company. The event window spans 21 days, specifically from t-10 to t+10, in which represents the ex-dividend date. The estimation period covers 120 days, from t-130 to t-10.
Based on the outcomes
of the t-test conducted on CAAR t-10 to t-1, it was determined that the
implementation of the new dividend tax rate failed to generate any market
reaction before the ex-dividend date.
The t-test of CAAR t_0 to t+10 produced identical results, indicating
that there was no market response after the ex-dividend date as a result of the
effect of the new dividend tax rate. There was no reaction from the market
either before or after the ex-dividend date, according to the results of the
overall CAAR t-test that was conducted in the event window (t-10 to t+10). This
finding is consistent with the research conducted by Nam, Wang, and Zhang
(2010), which revealed that abnormal returns were not significantly different
in the periods before and after the dividend tax rate cut.
Overall, the reduction
in the dividend tax rate does not have any effect on the external factors that
are associated with the company, such as the reaction of the market to the new
policy, when the complete picture is considered. On the other hand, it affects
the internal aspects of the company, particularly the policy that the
corporation has taken about dividend payments. This aligns with the concepts of
customer theory and catering theory, which believe that corporations recognize
the advantages of dividend tax rate reduction for their investors.
To the advantage of
its shareholders, the company will therefore implement a dividend policy by the
new tax rate. Despite this, there has not been a big market reaction to the new
tax rate policy, which implies that there are still a limited number of investors
in Indonesia who are aware of the potential tax benefits.
As a result of this
research, it has been discovered that in addition to distributions and dividend
tax rates, other market information and market conditions can also be
considered as factors that can influence changes in stock prices. According to
Ghada (2015), changes in stock prices that are brought about by dividend
announcements are also significantly impacted by other elements that have the
potential to influence investor behavior, such as economics and politics
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