Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia p–ISSN: 2541-0849 e-ISSN: 2548-1398
Vol. 8, No. 12, December 2023
ENHANCING PT AJSE LIFE INSURANCE
BUSINESS GROWTH USING THE DIGITAL PLATFORM THROUGH THE SUCCESS OF MAJOR
INDONESIA’S INSURANCE COMPANIES
Yunika Adiyono, Kinsenary
Tjendrasa, Sylviana Maya Damayanti
School
of Business Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
Email:
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly
affected Indonesia's economy, particularly its insurance industry, leading to a
surge in Digital Financial Innovation (DFI) and Financial Technology (Fintech).
Despite a low insurance coverage rate of 3.18% in 2021, the Financial Services
Authority (OJK) is advocating for technological integration. This research
aimed to reforecast PT AJSE's financial performance amid the digital
transformation in insurance, analyzing data from 2018 to 2022 from top life
insurance players and employing quantitative methods to forecast PT AJSE future
performance. The results indicate that DFI has enhanced profitability in top
life insurance companies, suggesting significant benefits for PT AJSE, a small
insurer with growth potential. By adopting DFI, PT AJSE could see improvements
in income and assets, with three projected scenarios showing varied outcomes.
The study recommends that PT AJSE strategically integrate DFI into its
operations, enhance digital marketing skills among employees, develop
customer-centric digital services, and leverage its association with a major
e-commerce platform for market penetration.
Keywords: Digital Financial Innovation (DFI)
Impact, Financial Forecasting, Insurance Technology Market Strategies,
Insurance Financial Ratio Analysis, Scenario-Based Forecasting.
Introduction
The COVID-19 pandemic,
beginning in March 2020, significantly impacted Indonesia's economic sector,
particularly evident in its financial institutions (Astuti
& Mahardhika, 2020). This period was marked by a
notable downturn in the economy, with a contraction of 5.32% in the second
quarter of 2020. The pandemic brought about substantial changes in operational
norms, especially for financial institutions, which had to quickly adapt to Work
from Home (WFH) regulations (Susilawati
et al., 2020). This shift necessitated a rapid
embrace of digital technologies to ensure continued operational efficiency.
Alongside these changes, there was a marked increase in the use of Financial
Technology (Fintech), driven by heightened internet usage across Indonesia (Manawar
et al., 2023). The pandemic, thus, served as
an unexpected catalyst for the expansion and innovation within the Fintech
sector (Jameaba,
2020). Despite the overall growth in
the digital economy, the Indonesian insurance sector faced stagnation, with a
mere 3.18% of the population covered by insurance in 2021. The sector
confronted several challenges, including complex claims processes, high premium
rates, and a general atmosphere of mistrust. Recognizing these issues, the
Financial Services Authority (OJK) advocated for the adoption of Digital
Financial Innovation (DFI), specifically Insurtech, as a strategic response (Rauniyar
et al., 2021). Insurtech, which involves the
integration of technology to enhance insurance services and customer
experience, was identified as a key tool for companies to overcome the
operational challenges of the pandemic and to improve service delivery (Catlin
et al., 2018).
As the life insurance
industry accelerates towards digitalization, a trend further propelled by
regulatory initiatives, PT AJSE as a focus of this research will also face this
digitalization era and evolving market demands. Established in 2013, the
company has been a traditional player in the market, primarily focusing on
standard insurance offerings. However, with the industry's shift to digital
platforms since 2020, PT AJSE's conventional methods of marketing and product
distribution have increasingly faced challenges. The company's operation needs
to assess the condition in which traditional marketing strategies are replaced
by digital methods. This situation places PT AJSE in a precarious position,
highlighting the urgent need to adapt and integrate more innovative digital
strategies. The success of PT AJSE in this transforming landscape will depend
heavily on its ability to redefine its marketing approach, leveraging digital
channels to connect with its audience and avoid potential revenue losses.
Embracing this digital shift should be considered heavily as a strategic move
for PT AJSE as in Industry, it is a necessary evolution to remain competitive
and relevant in an industry that is rapidly moving away from traditional
business models.
PT AJSE, established
in 2013 and having undergone several ownership changes, exemplifies these
challenges. Initially focused on traditional insurance products, PT AJSE
shifted in 2022 to introduce simpler and more affordable insurance products,
targeting the low to middle-income segments in Indonesia. As the life insurance
industry leaders are compelled in the imperative of optimizing digitalization
strategies to enhance financial performance, with additional push by regulatory
initiatives, PT AJSE faces a pressing challenge. The company must effectively
leverage and adapt to this changing landscape to avert potential revenue loss
in the future.
Based on the background
that has been stated above, the research question of this study are (1) How does the implementation of Digital
Financial Innovation affect the profitability ratio in Life insurance leaders
in Indonesia for the period 2018-2022? (2) What is the financial projection for
PT AJSE in the future after considering the implementation of Digital Financial
Innovation? (3) What is the recommendation for PT AJSE in order to catch up
with changing online insurance market?
The primary objective
of this research is to explore the benefits and strategic pathways for PT AJSE
to thrive in the digital insurance market. This involves assessing the
company's potential financial performance in the context of adapting to the
changing online insurance market landscape. The research aims to identify
actionable steps and recommendations for PT AJSE to navigate this transition
effectively and mitigate potential business losses.
Research Methods
Research
methodology serves as a systematic approach to address a research question. Creswell (2014)
emphasized the importance of selecting
a methodology that aligns with the research objectives and questions. Hence,
the design should show a systematic approach to research, encompassing the
selection of appropriate methods for data collection, analysis, and
interpretation. As clear rational is needed behind methodological choices,
ensuring ethical and reliable research practices.
Quantitative
method is used by author to forecast PT AJSE’s financial performance after
ensuring the impact of DFI implementation and conforming the result to the
profitability impact of Top 7 life insurance companies in Indonesia after
implementing DFI on 2018-2022 . Below is the framework that author use for this
study:
Figure 1. Research Methodology
Data Collection Method
Primary data, as defined by Kumar (2011),
is information collected first-hand, tailored to
the research's specific needs, resources, and capabilities. In this study, the
initial financial projection data from PT AJSE is considered primary data.
Conversely, secondary data is information acquired indirectly through existing
sources like books, journals, previous research, and reports. This research
utilizes financial statements from the top 7 life insurance companies,
available on their websites and publications, to understand each company's
position in implementing Digital Financial Innovation (DFI), categorizing these
as secondary data.
The
population is described as a whole group of data, activities, interesting
objects and other things to be
taken and further investigated (Sugiyono, 2018).
This is described in regards of the research’s step to identify the impact of
DFI to Top 7 player’s in Indonesia. As elucidated by Santoso (2017),
a sample denotes a subset of data procured or selected from a larger
population. This concept is further
expounded upon by Sugiyono (2018),
who characterizes a sample as a representative segment of the entire
population. Hence, the merit of a well-chosen sample lies in its ability to
accurately mirror the population it is drawn from.
For
this study, the selection of samples adheres to the purposive sampling
technique. The rationale behind this choice of sampling method is rooted in its
alignment with the research's goals, problems, and objectives. In which
understanding the impact of DFI implementation towards Life Insurance sector in
Indonesia, as the sample already reflected the 66% market share based on premium/
revenue factor. The sample for this step will be using top 7 Companies with largest market share in
Life Insurance sector in Indonesia. The period will take a look from 2018 –
2022 financial performance.
Data Analysis Method
Descriptive
statistics are a type of statistics used to describe or give an overview of an
object being studied through sample data or its population, providing general
conclusions without conducting in-depth analysis (Sugiyono, 2017). This
analysis is done to ensure the impact of Digital Finance Innovation (DFI) on
Company’s profitability ratio namely Return On Asset (ROA), for the 2018-2022
period, with data in the form of numbers that are statistically processed.
The
classical assumption test is a prerequisite for conducting panel data
regression analysis, especially if the common effect is chosen. This method
uses SPSS software for testing classical assumptions, and the tests to be used
are as follows:
1) Residual
Normality Test: This test checks if the residuals from a regression model are
normally distributed. The Normal P-P Plot of regression standardized residual
is used, where normality is indicated if the points scatter around and follow
the diagonal line.
2) Autocorrelation
Test: This test assesses the correlation of errors over time or place in a
linear regression model. The Durbin-Watson (DW) Test is used, where no
autocorrelation is indicated if the DW value is between du and 4-du, while
values outside this range suggest autocorrelation.
3) Heteroskedasticity
Test: This test checks if the variances of residuals are equal across
observations. A scatterplot between Z prediction (ZPRED) and its residual
values (SRESID) is analyzed. Homoskedasticity is indicated by a scatter above
and below the origin point without a regular pattern, while a regular pattern
suggests heteroskedasticity.
The hypothesis test in
this research is useful to determine whether the impact of DFI is significant
to top life insurance companies’ profitability and the tests are consists of:
1) Simultaneous
Test (F Test): Determines if all variables in the model jointly influence the
dependent variable. A significance value less than 0.05 indicates acceptance of
the alternative hypothesis.
2) Coefficient
of Determination (R Test): Measures how much variation in the dependent
variable is explained by the independent variables, with values closer to one
indicating a greater influence.
3) Partial
Test (t test): Assesses the influence of individual explanatory variables on
the dependent variable. The null hypothesis is rejected or accepted based on
the t statistic.
Simple Linear Regression
Analysis is used to analyze the linear relationship between the independent
variable (implementation of DFI factors) and the dependent variable
(profitability ratio). The model includes is as below:
ROA =
β0 + β1DIG(t) + ɛ
In where:
ROA : Profitability
ratio
β0 : Constant
β1 – β11 : Regression coefficients
DIG : Digitalization
(Implementation of DFI factors)
ɛ : Error level
These tests collectively aim to
evaluate the impact and significance of DFI on the profitability ratios of life
insurance companies.
Defining Assumptions
The
process of defining assumptions relevant for forecasting includes a strategic
analysis known as Trend Analysis, which encompasses both trend identification
and statistical data analysis. This analysis is primarily focused on assessing
the financial performance and growth patterns of leading life insurance
companies in Indonesia from 2018 to 2022, while also considering broader market
trends. The central objective of this process is to aid in the determination of
key assumptions by closely examining how the industry's transition to digital
methodologies has influenced revenue and expense growth trends. This analysis
provides critical benchmarks and essential insights that form the foundation
for constructing a realistic and well-informed forecasting model.
Moreover,
PT AJSE's affiliation with one of Indonesia's largest e-commerce entities,
which holds a significant market share, further justifies this benchmarking
approach. The e-commerce platform's extensive reach and digital expertise offer
a solid foundation for PT AJSE to anticipate changes in expected financial
performance driven by digitalization. This affiliation not only enhances PT
AJSE's visibility in the market but also provides valuable insights into
consumer behavior and digital engagement. These insights are pivotal for
crafting a forward-looking digital strategy that taking into account top life
companies’ real financial result, aligning with our company’s ability to
leverage digital tools to enter this market segment successfully.
The
insights derived from this analysis will directly contribute to shaping the
assumptions underlying PT AJSE's financial forecasts. A thorough understanding
of these revenue and expense growth trends is vital, as it not only reflects
the historical financial performance in the context of digital transformation
but also aids in anticipating future financial patterns. This focus ensures
that the forecasting for PT AJSE is rooted to the empirical data but also
considering the evolving digital dynamics of the insurance industry.
In
essence, this Trend Analysis acts as a foundational tool in the construction of
reliable forecasting assumptions for PT AJSE, ensuring that the company’s
financial projections are both reflective and adaptive to potential future
changes in the digital insurance landscape.
Forecasting Financial
Projection
After
determining assumptions, the author proceeds to forecast based on PT AJSE's
existing financial projections by employing scenario analysis. This technique
allows for the creation of a broad range of potential forecasts, including
extremes. The research uses PT AJSE's current financial projections, grounded
in empirical data and business strategies, and adapts them based on the impacts
of Digital Financial Innovation (DFI) within the company's operational context.
This method combines PT AJSE's established forecasting practices with new
scenarios to assess potential variances. The scenario analysis utilizes the
existing 2023 financial forecasts to explore various potential outcomes for PT
AJSE's financial projection up to 2028, divided into three primary scenarios:
1) Best
Scenario: The scenario will be developed from PT AJSE's initial forecast for
2023, with modifications to reflect the implementation of Digital Financial
Innovation. The adjustments will be based on expected outcomes, established
through data analysis and the formulation of assumptions.
2) Middle
Scenario: This scenario adjusts the initial projection to account for a reality
where the impacts of Digital Financial Innovation are realized, but to a lesser
extent than the best scenario is reached. The scenario will be based on
author’s risk analysis due to certain risk that should be considered as it
tempers the full potential of DFI.
3) Worst
Scenario: This scenario is anchored in PT AJSE's 2023 initial forecasts,
extending the current expectations into the future without the implementation
of any significant strategic initiatives or DFI. In this scenario, the company
does not implement DFI and obtain the benefits of it, effectively maintaining
the status quo, and resulting in a forecast that mirrors the existing
projections without any improvement.
Results
and Discussion
External and
Internal Analysis
Author
performed external and internal business situation analysis. The external
analysis through PESTLE analysis reveals a complex interplay of factors shaping
the Indonesian life insurance market, crucial for PT AJSE’s response to Digital
Financial Innovation. The Five Forces Analysis indicates high competition among
existing insurers, a medium threat from new digital entrants, and a moderate
level of substitute products. While buyer bargaining power remains small, it is
growing due to increased financial literacy and digital access. The supplier
power in technology and related services is also moderate. These analyses
underscore the competitive and digitally evolving insurance landscape in
Indonesia, highlighting the necessity for PT AJSE to adapt and enhance its
strategies in response to these external factors, ensuring sustained
profitability and market relevance.
For
the internal analysis, PT AJSE's strengths are analyzed through a VRIO
framework, focusing on unique product offerings, association with a major e-commerce
platform, and financial support from its parent group. The company’s ability to
offer unique and affordable insurance products is valuable in attracting new
market segments, especially younger demographics. However, these products are
not particularly rare or difficult to imitate. The association with a leading
e-commerce platform in Indonesia provides a valuable and somewhat rare
distribution channel, though this too can be imitated by competitors. The
commitment from the parent group for capital injection offers value in terms of
regulatory compliance and business growth, but like product offerings, this
aspect is neither rare nor hard to imitate. The effectiveness of these
resources and capabilities largely hinges on the strategic planning and
organizational execution by PT AJSE.
The
SWOT analysis of PT AJSE highlights its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities,
and threats. Strengths include leveraging its association with a major
e-commerce platform for digital distribution, adapting to government support in
financial literacy, and positioning itself in the growing insurance market.
However, challenges include navigating complex regulations, balancing
traditional product strategies with digital innovation, and the competitive
digital landscape. Opportunities for PT AJSE lie in engaging with the expanding
economy through digital platforms, targeting younger demographics, and
incorporating InsurTech innovations for enhanced services and operational
efficiency. Threats include the fast-paced digital market where maintaining a
competitive edge is challenging, and the presence of digital financial
alternatives which could act as substitutes for traditional insurance products.
Based
on the overall internal and external analysis, author has conducted a risk
analysis to evaluate the likelihood and impact of various threat and
opportunities based on SWOT analysis which could influence PT AJSE's position
in the Insurance Industry. The analysis also considers whether PT AJSE's
strengths as analyzed in VRIO are sufficient to navigate and surmount these
challenges.
Statistic Result
The descriptive analysis
of the profitability variables (ROA) and frequency of Digital Financial
Innovation (DFI) implementation showed a range of values, with ROA varying
significantly and a majority of the sample implementing DFI at high frequency.
Classical Assumption
Testing Result
1) Normality
Test: The normality test indicated that the residuals from the regression model
are normally distributed, as shown by the distribution of data around the
diagonal line in the Normal P-P Plot.
2) Autocorrelation
Test: The Durbin-Watson test results showed no autocorrelation in the
regression model, with the dW value falling between the defined range.
3) Heteroskedasticity
Test: The scatterplot for the heteroscedasticity test displayed data points
spread around the origin, indicating no heteroscedasticity issue in the
regression model.
Hypothesis Test
1) Simultaneous
Test (F Test): The F test demonstrated a significant influence of the independent
variable (digital) on the dependent variable (profitability), with a
significance value of less than 0.05.
2) Coefficient
of Determination (R Test): The coefficient of determination indicated that the
digitalization variable could explain 10.4% of the variance in profitability,
with the rest influenced by other variables.
3) Partial
Test (t test): The partial test results showed a positive impact of DFI on
profitability, with the hypothesis accepted based on the significance value.
Simple Linear Regression
The
simple linear regression analysis confirmed a positive relationship between DFI
and profitability, with DFI positively impacting profitability. This result
forms the basis for developing financial projections for PT AJSE, incorporating
a positive assumption about the impact of DFI on future financial performance.
Forecasting
Assumptions
These
assumptions are based on historical data of top life insurance companies and
market data, considering PT AJSE’s affiliate with a major e-commerce platform
in Indonesia. The forecasting includes three scenarios: best, middle, and
worst. The best scenario predicts a higher premium growth rate due to DFI,
while the middle scenario adopts a more conservative approach, considering
market competition and regulatory challenges. The operational efficiency and
marketing costs are expected to improve with increased DFI adoption, with the
best scenario showing the highest efficiency and cost reductions. The
forecasting for regulatory costs aligns with PT AJSE's asset base, and other
financial metrics remain consistent with the initial projections, focusing
primarily on the impact of DFI implementation.
Forecasting
Scenario
In
the best-case scenario, PT AJSE is expected to see significant growth from 2023
to 2028, with premium revenue increasing from IDR 139.558 million to IDR
171.487 million. This growth is attributed to effective digital strategies.
While costs related to acquisition, reinsurance, and administration are
projected to rise, reflecting investments in digital infrastructure, the
company’s commitment to digital innovation, including DFI implementation costs
starting in 2024, is expected to enhance operational efficiencies. The EBIT is
projected to remain stable, indicating that revenue growth will cover the incremental
costs and maintain profitability. The balance sheet shows a healthy financial
position, with total assets nearly doubling and a substantial growth in total
equities, indicating strong equity growth and potential shareholder value.
The
middle scenario forecasts a moderate upward trend in premium revenues for PT
AJSE, expected to rise from IDR 138.370 million in 2023 to IDR 164.312 million
by 2028. This scenario considers the risks associated with DFI implementation.
Costs related to acquisition and reinsurance are projected to increase
proportionally to revenue growth. Total income is expected to rise, reflecting
the company’s financial improvement. Expenditures such as regulatory,
marketing, and DFI implementation costs will increase steadily, with EBIT
fluctuating but ending slightly above the worst-case scenario. The balance
sheet in this scenario indicates robust growth in total assets, liabilities,
and equities, suggesting a firm foundation for sustainable growth.
In
the worst-case scenario, PT AJSE’s financial performance is expected to
stagnate, mirroring the initial projection without significant improvement.
Premium growth is anticipated to be minimal due to a lack of stimulation from
digital innovation. Expenses, including acquisition, reinsurance, and
administrative costs, may not benefit from DFI-driven cost savings, potentially
maintaining or increasing their current levels. Administrative and regulatory
expenses are expected to rise without the cost containment that DFI offers.
Marketing and general administration costs could also increase if the company
continues traditional methods. The balance sheet reflects constrained growth,
indicating a company facing market challenges without the competitive
advantages of DFI. This scenario highlights the importance of DFI in driving
growth and operational efficiency.
Scenarios Comparation
For
the year 2028, PT AJSE's financial forecast illustrates diverse trajectories
under three scenarios such as best, middle, and worst. Each is influenced by the degree
of DFI adoption. In the best-case scenario, the company’s strategic embrace of
DFI is expected to generate a
total
income of IDR 168.984 million, with an EBIT of IDR 70.219 million, signaling
strong digital driven growth and profitability. The middle scenario forecasts a
tempered yet positive outcome, with income at IDR 161.914 million and EBIT at
IDR 64.882 million, reflecting cautious optimism amidst competitive and
operational headwinds.
The
worst case scenario, which contemplates no enhancement in DFI efforts, predicts
the lowest income at IDR 156.513 million and an EBIT of IDR 59.307 million,
pointing to the critical role of DFI in bolstering financial performance.
Despite varying income levels, operational expenses and insurance costs remain relatively
stable, underscoring effective cost management.
Asset
projections range from IDR 613.858 million in the best-case scenario to IDR
602.945 million in the worst case, demonstrating resilience in asset growth.
Equities follow a similar pattern, from IDR 412.166 million down to IDR 401.253
million, indicative of the company's robust equity position even in challenging
scenarios. Liabilities hold steady at IDR 201.692 million across all scenarios,
showcasing a consistent approach to financial obligations. This spectrum of
outcomes highlights the significance of DFI in shaping PT AJSE’s financial
future and underscores the company's solid foundation
in facing various market conditions.
Conclusion
Financial Outlook for PT
AJSE Considering DFI Implementation: PT AJSE's financial projections with the
expected assumptions which mostly surround DFI integration predict a favorable
uplift in financial indicators. Although DFI implementation may require
substantial investment in the start, the scenarios analyzed from best to worst
indicate that the strategic digital advancements are expected to yield
long-term financial benefits. These benefits include improved total income,
EBIT, and stronger asset and equity positions, which collectively suggest that
DFI is a valuable investment for future growth and market adaptability.
Strategic Digitalization for
PT AJSE: In navigating the evolving online insurance market, PT AJSE's move
towards DFI implementation is a proactive step in aligning with market trends
while setting a foundation for future operation. The initial costs, though
impacting short-term margins, are essential for long-term gains. This approach
aligns with the need to convert identified threats—such as the rapidly changing
digital landscape and intense market competition—into opportunities for
operational efficiencies, enhanced customer experiences, and new revenue
streams. Thus, prioritizing digitalization is not just a response to market
trends but a strategic decision to leverage digital transformation as a core component
of PT AJSE’s business strategy. This approach ensures that PT AJSE not only
addresses its current weaknesses but also harnesses digital innovation as a
driver for sustained growth and market leadership in the digital-first
insurance landscape.
As a recommendation, PT AJSE should refocus its strategy approach on integrating Digital Financial Innovation
(DFI) into its core operations, capitalizing on technology investments, and
harnessing synergies with its associated
e-commerce platform to enhance digital marketing and develop customer-centric
services. This strategy calls for a shift towards employee digital skill
enhancement, particularly in digital marketing, to support the evolving DFI
objectives. Additionally, PT AJSE is advised to revise its financial
projections, considering the revenue potential from digital channels and
Insurtech scalability, while nurturing a digital-first culture within the
organization. Balancing innovation with robust risk management and compliance
is crucial, ensuring the company remains agile and resilient in the rapidly
changing digital landscape. This comprehensive recommendation aims to elevate
PT AJSE's digital presence, streamline processes, and secure a competitive edge
in the digital arena.
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Copyright holder: Yunika Adiyono, Kinsenary Tjendrasa, Sylviana Maya Damayanti (2023) |
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