Kelayakan Finansial PLTA Run-of-River dengan Integrasi Mekanisme Article 6: Studi Kasus PLTA Watunohu
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi kelayakan finansial Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air (PLTA) run-of-river Watunohu melalui integrasi analisis hidrologi berbasis Flow Duration Curve (FDC), evaluasi indikatif optimasi debit desain, serta potensi pendapatan kredit karbon berdasarkan mekanisme Article 6 Perjanjian Paris. Pendekatan kuantitatif evaluatif digunakan dengan menginterpretasikan data hidrologi dan FDC dari studi kelayakan terdahulu, melakukan simulasi beberapa alternatif debit desain secara indikatif untuk menilai produksi energi tahunan dan capacity factor, serta mengevaluasi kelayakan finansial menggunakan indikator net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), profitability index (PI), dan payback period (PP). Debit desain final, parameter teknis, serta komponen CAPEX dan OPEX tetap mengacu pada studi kelayakan sebelumnya untuk menjaga konsistensi desain. Analisis dilakukan pada dua skenario, yaitu skenario dasar dan skenario dengan integrasi pendapatan karbon. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa proyek PLTA Watunohu memenuhi kriteria kelayakan finansial pada skenario dasar dengan NPV sebesar Rp247,97 miliar, IRR 8,19%, dan PP 10,53 tahun. Integrasi mekanisme Article 6 meningkatkan kinerja finansial proyek dengan menaikkan NPV menjadi Rp261,79 miliar dan IRR menjadi 8,27%. Analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa biaya investasi dan nilai tukar merupakan faktor yang paling berpengaruh terhadap kelayakan finansial proyek, sedangkan variasi capacity factor memberikan dampak yang relatif terbatas.
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